The indirect Iran-Israel confrontation is expanding rapidly. Recently,
several operations took place in Iran targeting persons and sites. Iran accused
Israel of attacking one of its bases in the west of the country, and outside
Iranian territories, Israel targeted Damascus airport and the port of Latakia,
seen as a continuation of the targeting of Iran and its allies
اضافة اعلان
Many consider the
lack of an Iranian reaction to Israeli attacks somewhat intriguing. The Iranian
silence could be interpreted as a desire, on Tehran’s part, to concentrate on
the nuclear issue and not to get involved in conflicts that might distract its
attention and drag it into wider conflicts. It might also well indicate Iran’s
attempt to adopt a new approach.
The Iranian regime
is not seeking any diplomatic victory when it comes to restoring the nuclear
deal. Iran is prioritizing its influence in the region, and imposing its
vision, and it has very advanced military weapons, e.g., drones and ballistic
missiles, to do so.
The Iranian
conflict with Israel was always based on a long-term strategy that includes
reinforcing the military capacities of non-state actors, e.g., Hamas,
Hezbollah, and militias in Syria and Iraq. Moreover, Iran tries to influence if
not to shape the Palestinian problem focusing on the Palestinian refugee camps
from where it may recruit militias that serve to keep Israel under threat.
In a recent speech
of the Israeli defense minister, Benny Gantz, during a rally in Kiryat Shmona,
marking the 40th anniversary of the 1982 invasion of Lebanon, he underlined
Israel’s need to carry out a powerful and accurate operation in Lebanon,
saying: “It will levy a heavy price for the Iranian Hezbollah and Lebanese
shipments. In the face of a threat to the citizens of Israel, no infrastructure
used to harm us will be immune.”
At the same time,
Israeli officials consider Iranian threats against Israelis in Turkey very real
and serious. Intel information said an Iranian will attack Israeli targets in
countries where Iran can operate. This development created an opportunity for
the restoration of Turkish-Israeli cooperation, with Turkey seizing the
opportunity to prove that it is a trusted ally of Israel’s.
The Iranian conflict with Israel was always based on a long-term strategy that includes reinforcing the military capacities of non-state actors, e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah, and militias in Syria and Iraq.
The regional
anti-Iran sentiment is also growing. The Saudi policy toward the region
indicates the intention to reorganize the so-called Sunni alliance.
The level of
escalation in this indirect confrontation between Israel and Iran might take a
new dimension; if reaching an agreement with Iran on its nuclear program ends
in failure, it may result in Tehran seeking to produce nuclear weapon, as
constantly hammered into the Israeli narrative.
The writer is a Jordanian university professor and
geopolitical expert. He is a leading columnist in national, regional, and
international media, offers consultancies to think tanks and speaks at
international conferences on Middle East politics and developments.
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