Mobility is going to change at an accelerated pace in the coming decades.
Zero-emission vehicles are monopolizing the market where potential competition
between the energy model to power them, electric and hydrogen, comes in.
اضافة اعلان
Both have
advantages and disadvantages, distinctive features, and different development
processes. Perhaps in a few years, they will replace the diesel/supercar
dichotomy of the last few decades, and consumers will have to decide between
electric and hydrogen cars.
Demand for cars is
an essential sign of changing consumer behavior. The Jordanian Free Zones
Investors Association data shows that 7,050 electric cars were imported to
Jordan in the first half of this year, compared with 3,700 in 2021,
representing a 200 percent increase. They still make up less than 2 percent of
the 1.5 million cars in the country of 10 million people, but are expected to
grow fast as gasoline car clearance decreased by 15 percent and hybrid cars
recorded the highest clearance drop by 50 percent.
EV producers have
been enjoying tax exemptions and other benefits, while consumers have been
enjoying subsidized prices. In France, the government’s “Advenir” program funds
the creation of charge points on the road for EVs, adding to the overall
feeling of support. In the US, the Biden administration has stated its
ambitious goal of having half of the new car sales electric by 2030. However,
the current grid does not support EV charging expansion.
US consultancy
institution Brattle Group concludes that $75–$125 billion will need to be
invested across the electric power sector supply chain by 2030. The investment
will add 60–95 TWh of annual electricity demand and 10–20 GW of peak load,
requiring 12–18 GW of renewable generation capacity to serve 20 million EVs,
including adding 1–2 million public chargers. While this creates a significant
opportunity for the electricity industry to increase sales and infrastructure
investments, it also creates new challenges.
The sourcing of
lithium batteries, for instance, can result in serious environmental damage and
produce as much as 16 tons of carbon emissions. In addition, because less than
5 percent of EV batteries are currently recycled, there is substantial risk of
environmental contamination related to spent battery disposal.
According to
recent estimates, by 2030, the number of EV batteries requiring removal will
roughly equal the number currently produced annually.
Hydrogen still has niches where its main strengths — lightness and quick refueling — provide a clear advantage. But while it is possible to fit personal driving lifestyles around strategic battery charging stops, this is not ideal for commercial or long-distance public transport vehicles like trains or coaches, which rely on fast refueling to reduce wait times across long distances.
Nevertheless, not
all EV technologies are created equal. While most EV promotions and sales
involve battery-powered EVs, ongoing innovations with hydrogen fuel cell and
electric vehicles (FCEV) make them an increasingly attractive option for some
consumers.
FCEV offers
greater ranges and faster refueling times. The Hyundai Nexo, for example, can
manage 414 miles and only takes five minutes to fill up, as opposed to the
hours it can take to recharge an EV. However, FCEV still tends to be expensive
to buy as there are yet to be any models at the budget end of the market.
FCEV in Jordan is
practically nonexistent. It seems that electric vehicles have the edge over
hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The reason is that hydrogen is not as developed as
a technology. However, given time and further development, hydrogen could catch
up even as electric vehicles advance. This paradigm will require investment in
infrastructure to support hydrogen fuel cell drivers.
The European
Commission wants to install at least one hydrogen refueling station every 150
kilometers of road in the TEN-T network of European connections by 2030. It can
also be expanded to develop other sectors, such as maritime transport, rail,
and aviation. A clear way forward is being forged, and many are coming on board
to decarbonize all road transport by 2040.
Given this
investment and future innovations to bring down the costs associated with
hydrogen cars, there is every chance that they could challenge electric
vehicles as the future of clean transport.
Hydrogen still has
niches where its main strengths — lightness and quick refueling — provide a
clear advantage. But while it is possible to fit personal driving lifestyles
around strategic battery charging stops, this is not ideal for commercial or
long-distance public transport vehicles like trains or coaches, which rely on
fast refueling to reduce wait times across long distances.
A pathway draws
upon the resources and capabilities of government and private sector partners
to push for global leadership in clean hydrogen technologies. The regulatory
framework will clearly define policies, regulations, standards, and
certifications for the emerging hydrogen industry to be globally competitive.
Hamzeh S. Al-Alayani is a board member of a Jordanian public-sector
government investments management company and a regular commentator on regional
energy and industrial matters.
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