Although the war in Syria has fallen away from the front pages, the conflict
continues to simmer. So too does the endless diplomacy as the myriad groups and
countries involved seek to extract deals that prioritize their national goals.
In the midst of so much shifting sand, it is little wonder that rumors and
comments spread like wildfire among Syrian communities — and that those rumors
provoke real-world responses.
اضافة اعلان
Such was the response last week to the admission by
Turkey’s foreign minister that he had met Syria’s foreign minister last year —
the first known meeting between the two sides since the war in Syria began more
than a decade ago.
But Mevlut Cavusoglu, speaking at a conference in
Ankara, also said something else rather intriguing: “We need to somehow come to
terms with the opposition and the regime in Syria …. There must be a strong
administration in Syria … that can dominate every corner of its lands.”
As with so much that has happened in the tussles
between Syria and outside powers over the past 10 years, much of the policy
changes have first been announced in hints. This could be one such change — or
it could be nothing, a mere comment.
Unsurprisingly, though, Syrians inside the country
and in Turkey were not willing to wait and see. His comments sparked immediate
protests in the parts of northern Syria still controlled by Turkey, where the
majority of Syrian rebels have relocated to, as the rest of the country has
fallen back under regime control.
There is an undeniable logic to Turkey placing
itself as the mediator between the Syrian regime and the opposition. Yet, doing
so also places the country in the invidious position of having to abandon its
Syrian allies, and undermines a plan that Ankara has spent years and tens of
millions of dollars to create.
If Cavusoglu’s
words become flesh, it would represent a considerable change, abandoning one
group of allies in order to defeat another group of militants.
Cavusoglu’s comments are the first hint that Turkey
may abandon its years-long plan to relocate Syrian refugees to the Syrian side
of the border, but protected by Turkish soldiers. Coming so soon after Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin, and Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi met in
Tehran, as part of the Astana process, it is little wonder it is being seen as
a policy shift.
Since 2016, Turkey has secured three of these
enclaves all along the Turkish-Syrian border. In these liminal spaces, Syrians
who sought asylum in Turkey have been relocated, their children studying in
Turkish-built schools, using the Turkish currency, administered by Turkish
governors and overseen by Syrian soldiers paid for by the Turkish government.
These enclaves, while deeply controversial and a
violation of Syria’s territorial sovereignty, were a workable solution for two
of Turkey’s greatest challenges — how to remove millions of Syrian refugees
from its soil, and how to push back Kurdish militants from its border.
The Syrian refugee issue has become a domestic
priority; popular anger in Turkey over the number of Syrian refugees has not
abated. In fact, it could yet fuel sufficient anger that Erdogan may lose next
year’s elections.
But if Turkey becomes the man-in-the-middle,
mediating between the Assad regime and the opposition, many of the benefits of
these enclaves fall apart. Indeed, even hinting that this may be an option — as
Cavusoglu has — could make the whole endeavor unworkable.
The last thing Ankara wants is for this area to become a de-facto state, and Erdogan has made clear he is willing to use military force to stop it.
Almost everyone who lives in the Turkish enclaves
does not want to be subject to regime control again, fearful of imprisonment or
worse. That is certainly true for the 50,000 Syrian rebels in the Syrian
National Army, a group entirely funded by Turkey.
What those living in these enclaves fear more than
anything is what might be called a Sinjar moment — waking up to find Turkish
soldiers have left and the Syrian regime is back in charge, a reference to the
Yazidi town in 2014, when Kurdish troops retreated overnight, leaving the
inhabitants to Daesh militants, with devastating results.
Even the rumor that these areas may one day be
abandoned to the regime would stop further refugees moving there — and would
almost certainly make the Syrian rebel soldiers prepare for that possibility.
The sole reason for the abandonment of the enclave
plan is the perceived threat of a Kurdish homeland.
Turkey has fought a long-running insurgency by the
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) inside Turkey and does not want allied Kurdish
militias on its border. These Kurdish militias, with the support of the US, now
control vast parts of Syria’s east and northeast, in areas where natural
resources are concentrated. The last thing Ankara wants is for this area to
become a de-facto state, and Erdogan has made clear he is willing to use
military force to stop it.
This potential — and most likely ad-hoc — alliance
with the regime will have that goal in mind. But it will come at a cost. In
terms of the Syrian regime’s hierarchy of desires, ridding the eastern parts of
Syria of American influence ranks higher than the small enclaves Turkey has
created on its territory. However, if — and it remains a significant if — a
deal between Ankara and Damascus resulted in the return of Kurdish-held
territories, that would surely leave only the Turkish enclaves beyond regime
control.
It is unimaginable that Damascus, having sought to
reclaim territory in one area, would be content to leave other areas under
Turkish control. Ankara must realize that would mean having to give up the
enclaves — and with them, the best plan it currently has to relocate millions
of Syrian refugees. Solving one of Turkey’s greatest challenges will simply
make another one ever more intractable.
Faisal Al Yafai is currently writing a book on the Middle East and is a frequent
commentator on international TV news networks. He has worked for news outlets
such as The Guardian and the BBC, and reported on the Middle East, Eastern
Europe, Asia and Africa. Twitter: @FaisalAlYafai. Syndication Bureau.
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