It took Egypt over three months to finally launch a significant
initiative to find a workable framework to end the crisis in neighboring Sudan.
On Sunday, the Egyptian presidency announced that Cairo will host a summit of
Sudan's neighbors on July 13 to discuss ways to end the conflict between
rival Sudanese military factions.
اضافة اعلان
The summit in Cairo on Thursday will aim to “develop effective
mechanisms” with neighboring states to settle the conflict peacefully, in
coordination with other regional or international efforts, Egypt’s presidency
said. The gathering will see the participation of heads of state and government
from Egypt, Libya, Chad, Central Africa, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea.
This coincided with a warning by the UN that Sudan was on the
brink of a “full-scale civil war,” something that should come as no surprise to
regional leaders and the international community.
The outbreak of violence between the
Sudanese national army and
the Rapid Support Force (RSF) militia last April has resulted in a dire
humanitarian crisis, displaced millions, killed hundreds, and destroyed key
civic installations in the capital Khartoum and Omdurman, including hospitals
while cutting off electricity and water supplies in much of the twin cities.
Geopolitically, instability in Sudan can create a power vacuum, allowing other regional actors to gain influence, potentially challenging Egypt's interests. It is inconceivable to imagine that Egypt cannot be concerned that Israel, which is focusing on restoring its ties in Africa, would not benefit from the chaos in Sudan.
Moreover, the failure of either side to score a decisive
military victory has prolonged the conflict and derailed attempts to reach a
long-term truce or launch a political process. For the army’s head,
Gen. Abdul Fattah Al-Burhan, the RSF is an insurgent group with a questionable agenda and
foreign links. Once a tentative ally, the head of the RSF, Gen.
Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemetti), is now seen by Burhan, who is the head of the Sovereignty
Council, as someone who is seeking to maintain control of his militia outside
the rule of law.
Sudan’s neighbors and other intermediaries, including the eight-member
Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), have not taken sides, at
least publicly, and treated the two warring entities as equals. The
US has certainly done so and threatened to impose sanctions on the army and the RSF.
But behind the scenes, there are claims; a few have been made by Burhan himself
that some intermediaries are biased and that foreign parties are actually
aiding Dagalo.
On Monday, the IGAD quartet, composed of regional leaders, held
an inaugural meeting in Addis Ababa, chaired by Kenyan President William Ruto
and attended by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. However, the presidents of
Djibouti and South
Sudan were absent from the meeting. And while a delegation
from the military-led Sudanese government arrived at the Ethiopian capital, it
refused to participate in the meeting due to objections to the Kenyan leader’s
chairmanship. It is doubtful that IGAD will successfully arrange a meeting
between the two rivals.
Only Saudi Arabia, with support from the US, had succeeded in
bringing
representatives from the two warring sides together in Jeddah a few
times. While there was no breakthrough in launching a political process, the
two sides agreed to a short-lived lull in the fighting to allow humanitarian
convoys to pass.
The fear that unless Sudan’s immediate neighbors find a way to
force both sides to end the conflict and revert to the Framework Agreement that
was adopted earlier this year, a civil war breaking up and spreading all over
the vast country will be a matter of time. Already there is plenty of evidence
that atrocities have been committed in Darfur while ethnic and tribal tensions
are also rising in Kordofan and Blue Nile provinces. Rebel groups involved in
past civil wars and who had signed the 2020 Juba peace agreement are
threatening to pick up their arms and resume the fight; some have secessionist
agendas.
Sudan’s neighbors and other intermediaries, including the eight-member Intergovernmental Authority on Development, have not taken sides, at least publicly, and treated the two warring entities as equals.
This is why it is important for Egypt, in particular, to step in
even if it had waited so long. Egyptian diplomacy is criticized for moving too
slowly and indecisively, not only in Sudan but in Libya and Ethiopia as well.
For Egypt, the war in Sudan is already a destabilizing factor.
Tens of thousands of Sudanese have taken refuge in Egypt, forcing the
authorities to impose visa restrictions to stem the tide of refugees. But more
importantly, Egypt has strategic, historical, cultural, and
economic links to Sudan, which have long been a cornerstone of Egyptian stability and national
security.
Although Egypt's border with Sudan is about 150 kilometers wider
than Libya's, a breakdown of authority in Khartoum threatens to drive millions
into Egypt because both countries have huge populations living along the Nile
Valley basin. Egypt’s long border with Sudan makes security a top concern.
Instability in Sudan could potentially lead to a rise in cross-border crime,
smuggling of arms and goods, and even the infiltration of extremist groups. A
stable Sudan ensures better security cooperation, which is crucial for
Egypt's own stability.
Historically, both countries have strong economic ties,
particularly related to trade, investment, and energy. Sudan's Nile waters are
vital for both nations, as the river is a crucial water link and energy source.
Egypt relies almost completely on the Nile River for its water resources, with
nearly 90 percent of its water needs coming from the Nile. Conflicts in Sudan
can potentially disrupt the flow of the Nile waters, posing a threat to Egypt's
water security and agricultural sector. This should be more of a worrying
factor for Cairo as it seeks to resolve its dispute with Ethiopia over the
Great Renaissance Dam.
Geopolitically, instability in Sudan can create a power vacuum,
allowing other regional actors to gain influence, potentially
challenging Egypt's interests. It is inconceivable to imagine that Egypt cannot be
concerned that Israel, which is focusing on restoring its ties in Africa, would
not benefit from the chaos in Sudan.
While the Egyptian initiative may be slow to pick up traction,
it is today the best possible hope to find a way to push both sides to
negotiate and save their country from disintegrating.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based
in Amman.
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