Sudan’s modern history is dominated by the struggle between civilian powers, –
fragmented, politically polarized, and suspicious of each other, – and the
military, an entity torn between the attractions of radical ideological forces
of the day and neutrality.
اضافة اعلان
In fact, between its independence in 1956 and last
October, this vast African state faced 16 military attempts to grab power and
five successful military coups. The longest military dictatorship, 30 years,
was under Sudan’s last president, Omar Al-Bashir, who was deposed in 2019 in a
military coup following popular mass protests.
Only once did the military surrender power to
civilians peacefully. Gen. Suwar Al-Dahab, who ended Jaafar Nimeiri’s 16 year
dictatorship in 1985, kept his promise to hand over power to a democratic body
within one year. His gesture was the exception.
This is why the announcement last week by the vice
president of the ruling military Sovereign Council and leader of the notorious
Rapid Action Forces, Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemetti), was met with
skepticism by the majority of opposing civil movements and coalitions.
Following a week of bloodshed in tribal clashes in the southern Blue Nile state
and the gunning down of peaceful protesters in Khartoum and elsewhere by the
military, Dagalo said that the military had made a commitment not to cling to
an authority that could lead to more bloodshed and affect the stability of the
country. He added that the ruling council had decided to leave the ruling of
the country to civilians.
What is needed is to reinstate a transitional process culminating in holding free elections before the July 2023 target. Failing to do that means Sudan will face bitter internal conflicts that threaten the country’s unity and territorial integrity in the long run.
This was not the first time that the leaders of last
October’s coup promised to pave the way for democratic elections leading to a
transfer of power to civilian rule. Yet the head of the Sovereign Council, Gen.
Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, had already pushed the date of elections by one year,
to July 2023. He had dissolved a transitional government, led by Prime Minister
Abdalla Hamdok, and ended a political process that he had committed to protect.
There have been questions about who really is in
control of the military. Dagalo has been a central figure in Bashir’s bloody
rule. His elite forces are better equipped and more organized than the Sudan
army. He is believed to be the main power broker putting limits on Burhan.
Until a few weeks ago, the broad coalition of the
Freedom and Change Forces (FCF) was the main bloc opposing the military. It had
led the anti-Bashir protests and later worked with the military until last
October coup. Since then, it has rejected appeals for dialogue with the military
and pushed for popular protests.
But last May, the FCF announced the formation of a
new alliance called the United Civil Front, which brings together all forces
that supported the December 2018 revolt. It called for direct negotiations with
the military to restore the transition process to democratic civilian rule and
form a united national army.
For a while, it looked like the military and the
civilian forces were close to resuming such negotiations. But earlier this
month, the Tripartite Mechanism for Dialogue in Sudan announced the cessation
of talks it was sponsoring between the civilian and military components, and
attributed this to the decision of the military committee to withdraw from it.
In a statement, the Tripartite Mechanism said that
there would be no point in continuing talks in their current form, without the
army’s participation in the upcoming meetings. The talks had involved military
leaders and their supporters from the National Consensus groups and allies of
the former regime only. It was boycotted by the FCF. The Tripartite Mechanism
consists of the UN, the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority for
Development.
While civilian forces remain divided — earlier this
week a new grouping was announced, Alliance of Forces for Radical Change in
Sudan, led by the Communist Party that includes civilian movements, parties and
organizations, and seeks to overthrow the ruling authority in the country — it
remains a challenge to force the hand of the military. Instead, it is quite the
opposite: the army is now challenging the civilian forces to unite and come up
with a roadmap.
As Sudan spirals into chaos amid a failing economy,
acute food shortages, and tribal clashes, the military will either use force to
stamp out protests — something that had not worked before — or hand over power
to former Bashir allies in a bid to pit civilian forces against each other. For
Dagalo and the military, avoiding accountability for crimes committed against
the protesters and during the Bashir era is a major objective.
Attempting to overthrow the military will not work
and will be costly. What is needed is to reinstate a transitional process
culminating in holding free elections before the July 2023 target. Failing to
do that means Sudan will face bitter internal conflicts that threaten the
country’s unity and territorial integrity in the long run.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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