As the conflict in Sudan enters its second week, punctuated
by short-lived truces, the battle for control of the capital Khartoum is
inconclusive. And both sides of the internecine war claim to have the upper
hand. But as foreign missions are evacuated, and diplomatic efforts to enforce
a ceasefire appear to be deadlocked, various scenarios for a possible outcome
are unfolding, and none are good for the country's future.
اضافة اعلان
As of Monday, battles between the Sudanese national army and
the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) were raging around key positions, including the
military headquarters, the presidential palace, and the international airport.
The fact that fighting is continuing at these strategic locations indicates
that neither side has been able to move beyond day one of the war. This is a
worrying sign for the better equipped and better organized national army.
The RSF has been able to use its experience in urban warfare
to entrench its fighters inside heavily populated neighborhoods of the capital
and neighboring Omdurman, undermining the army's ability to use fighter jets
and helicopters as well as heavy armor. The most apt description of the
situation in the capital — for now — is that there is a stalemate, and in
strategic terms, this is better for the RSF.
The most apt description of the situation in the capital — for now — is that there is a stalemate, and in strategic terms, this is better for the RSF.
The absence of a truce has worsened an already catastrophic
humanitarian situation. Most hospitals are out of service, and those that are
not have run out of vital medicines and lifesaving materials. Thousands of
civilians are fleeing the city, and those who cannot leave have no access to
water, electricity, or food.
The head of the armed forces and the Sovereignty Council,
Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, sees no benefit in accepting a permanent ceasefire
to be followed by negotiations with his foe, Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also
known as Hemetti, seeing as such a thing would be an admittance of defeat and a
boon for Hemetti's gambit.
If anything, Burhan is bent on chasing out the RSF from the
capital before talk of a ceasefire is even contemplated. Without achieving this
goal, Burhan would find himself in a weak position. For Hemetti, the fact that
his fighters have been able to hold positions in the capital has given him two
things: the ability to air his message that he is fighting a corrupt junta that
is associated with the toppled regime of Omar Bashir and forcing the
international community to treat him on equal footing as Burhan.
The absence of a truce has worsened an already catastrophic humanitarian situation. Most hospitals are out of service, and those that are not have run out of vital medicines and lifesaving materials. Thousands of civilians are fleeing the city, and those who cannot leave have no access to water, electricity, or food.
And here lies the dilemma for Burhan. Almost all countries
that have commented on the crisis appealed to both sides to cease fighting. None,
at least publicly, has taken his side. This works well for Hemetti and
undermines Burhan's claim that he represents legitimacy.
If the current stalemate lingers on, several scenarios will
likely unfold in the coming days and weeks. One scenario, which is the most
optimistic, is that the army will eventually retake most of Khartoum, forcing
the RSF to flee to the provinces, especially Darfur, which is Hemetti's tribal
and military base. In the process, the army will extend its control over most
of the country, engaging the RSF in other urban centers.
Only then might Burhan yield to domestic and international
pressure to accelerate a process of handing power to a civilian government,
which, in turn, can negotiate with Hemetti about a peaceful settlement. It will
be difficult for Hemetti to reject a civilian administration in Khartoum since
he had supported the Framework Agreement and claimed that Burhan was about to
renege on his commitments.
Another scenario suggests that as the fighting continues
without a decisive conclusion, non-Sudanese players may step in to back either
one or both parties; thus dragging the country into a never-ending proxy war —
a dangerous possibility that could come true the longer the conflict continues.
The prospect of a civil war igniting as a result is distressing, to say the least.
If the above scenario begins to take place, an even more
sinister development could unfold. The Juba agreement could fall apart, and
separatist groups could stir trouble in Darfur, Blue Nile, south Kordofan, and
the eastern provinces. With a weak central government and a distracted national
army, the fear is that Sudan's territorial integrity will slowly unravel. The
prospect of a civil war igniting as a result is distressing, to say the least.
A weak and disintegrated Sudan is bad news for Egypt but not
so bad for other neighbors like Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Chad. Certainly, the
reverberations will be felt across Africa. And one should not forget about the
dubious role that Israel will play in weakening Egypt's southern neighbor.
It is imperative that the national army swiftly wins the
battle for Khartoum if the Framework Agreement has any chance of being
implemented. So far, the military stalemate is a bad omen for the country and
its future.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political
commentator based in Amman.
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