President Jair Bolsonaro flexed his muscle on Brazilian
Independence Day with huge rallies, but despite his attacks on the
establishment and veiled threats of an eventual power grab, he looks
increasingly isolated, analysts said Wednesday.
اضافة اعلان
The far-right leader drew seas of supporters decked out in
Brazilian green, yellow and blue into the streets of major cities across the
country Tuesday, railing against a Supreme Court and electoral system
supposedly stacked against him and vowing to defend his backers' "freedom."
Authorities placed turnout at an impressive 125,000 people
at the biggest rally, in economic capital Sao Paulo — though that fell short of
Bolsonaro's vow to draw a crowd of more than two million.
It is also far from representative in this sprawling country
of 213 million people, where
Bolsonaro's popularity is at an all-time low of
less than 25 percent, political analysts underlined.
The fired-up crowds, however, did make a mark on the
national conversation, already consumed with the build-up to elections in
October 2022 that polls put the embattled Bolsonaro on track to lose to leftist
ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
"Despite his political isolation, the president showed
he is still capable of mobilizing a noisy minority," political columnist
Bernardo Mello Franco wrote in newspaper O Globo.
The high-risk national day came off relatively smoothly,
despite fears the rallies could descend into a Brazilian version of the January
6 attack on the US Capitol by backers of former president Donald Trump,
Bolsonaro's political role model.
Authorities reported few incidents, even as pro-Bolsonaro
crowds of gun-rights advocates, evangelical Christians, anti-vax conspiracy
theorists and motorcycle fanatics marched just kilometers from anti-Bolsonaro
protests by leftist activists and labor movements.
However, analysts said Bolsonaro's new attacks on the
Supreme Court and Superior Electoral Tribunal sound increasingly like a prelude
to an eventual "power grab" if he loses next year's vote or refuses
to take part in it.
"He practically declared war on the Supreme
Court," said Edson Sardinha of the news site Congresso em Foco.
Bolsonaro, 66, notably warned he would no longer respect
rulings by high court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has ordered the president
investigated over accusations of systematically spreading fake news.
Chief Justice Luiz Fux said Wednesday that disrespecting a
Supreme Court ruling would be an impeachable offense, and warned Bolsonaro:
"No one will close this court."
Bolsonaro also renewed his attacks on Brazil's electronic
voting system, which he alleges — without evidence — is plagued by fraud.
He said he refused to take part in an election
"farce" in 2022.
"Bolsonaro constantly seeks to fuel crises. It's his
style of governance, his means to rally his base," said Gaspard Estrada, a
Latin America expert at Sciences Po in France.
'Any lengths'
Paradox abounded as Bolsonaro accused the Supreme Court of
acting outside the constitution — then appeared to do the same himself,
insisting that "only God" could remove him from office.
"Bolsonaro isn't going to let go of power easily. With
his power-grabbing behavior, he has shown he will go to any lengths — including
sowing chaos in Brazil — to remain in the presidency," Estrada said.
Bolsonaro faces a series of investigations targeting him and
his inner circle, including the fake news probe and a Senate inquiry into his
controversial handling of COVID-19, which has claimed nearly 600,000 lives in
Brazil.
With inflation and unemployment both surging, Tuesday's
rallies only add to investor uncertainty over Latin America's economic giant,
said Claudio Frischtak, president of consulting firm Inter.BConsultorio.
"It's very bad for the economy," he told TV Globo.
Army in spotlight
Bolsonaro, a former army captain, is openly nostalgic for
Brazil's military dictatorship (1964–1985), and has hinted the armed forces
could intervene against the other branches of government to give him unfettered
power.
It is unclear the military would do that, however, despite
hundreds of officers holding government posts in his administration, including
at the highest levels.
"The president doesn't have the leverage to pull off a
military intervention" against Congress or the Supreme Court, said
political analyst Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
The most likely scenario for the year ahead, he said, is
"constant constitutional instability" and "a chaotic
situation."
Read more Opinion and Analysis
.jpg)
.jpg)
