The Economist published a report stating that the United States has no good options left to launch a "devastating attack" on Iran, alluding to President Donald Trump's overly exaggerated rhetoric.
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The magazine added that an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would not prevent U.S. involvement in an endless war.
For the first time in nearly two weeks, the United States launched no new strikes against Iran over the past 48 hours. This lull follows 13 consecutive nights of American bombardment and 12 Iranian attacks on vessels in the Arabian Gulf since July 6, which effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz once again. The ceasefire signed by both parties in April, followed by a memorandum of understanding in June, has become a distant memory.
The movements of U.S. fighter jets, special forces, and medical equipment to the Middle East suggest that President Trump is considering a return to all-out war. On July 23, he stated that America was "fully prepared" to launch a "full-scale attack."
However, Trump lacks effective options to compel Iran to adhere to its commitments under the memorandum of understanding, including reopening the strait to maritime navigation and committing to talks on reducing its uranium stockpile. Among the available options for America is expanding the scope of its strikes against critical Iranian infrastructure. The U.S. has launched strikes on hundreds of targets since resuming bombardment on July 7.
These measures encompass Iranian coastal air defenses, missile depots, and military logistical infrastructure.
U.S. Central Command, responsible for operations in the Middle East, stated that the objective is to "degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."
However, over the past week, signs of broader-scale attacks have emerged.
Trump had previously threatened to "destroy" Iran’s bridges, power plants, and water facilities, and now appears to be carrying out these threats.
The United States attacked roads, tunnels, bridges, and railways leading to Bandar Abbas—the southern port city handling a large share of Iran's trade—effectively isolating it from the rest of the country.
Additionally, U.S. aircraft attacked a water desalination plant in Bungi, in the southern Hormozgan province. According to Iranian state media, this cut off water supplies to 10,000 people across 20 villages. Iran responded by attacking power and water desalination plants in Kuwait, causing fires in several facilities.
The White House denied bombing civilian sites in Iran, insisting that it targeted "exclusively military targets, including military logistical infrastructure." On July 21, General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he was unaware of the strike targeting Bungi.
Strikes targeting civilian infrastructure could be considered war crimes, though President Trump’s Department of Defense (Pentagon) has repeatedly downplayed the significance of the Geneva Conventions and international law.
The magazine adds that the United States is planning to hit other targets: the nuclear facilities it struck alongside Israel last year, and again in February.
U.S. strikes are believed to have inflicted severe damage on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities—underground caverns where centrifuges are used to enrich uranium to higher purity levels, closer to weapons-grade material—in Natanz and Fordow. The latter was targeted with bunker-buster bombs last summer. However, another facility in Natanz, also known as "Axe Mountain," appears to remain untouched. On July 22, Trump reiterated his threat to bomb the mountain.
He had stated on July 13 that although America had not detected any "activity" there, he intended to "destroy" the facility anyway: "Tell the Iranians to be ready." The Institute for Science and International Security, a think tank, suggests the site remains under construction and is not yet operational, although Iran has moved thousands of centrifuges into it, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.
The magazine notes that Trump could order strikes on power lines, ventilation shafts, and entrance tunnels to the facility, or use bunker-busting munitions to strike its underground chambers directly.
However, the facility lies so deep underground that James Acton, of the Carnegie Endowment, doubts American weapons possess the capability to destroy its tunnels or damage its contents. He points out that "deeply buried underground facilities, such as Axe Mountain, are virtually immune to non-nuclear weapons." Furthermore, destroying the centrifuges would not force Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
This leaves Trump with only one other radical option: ordering a ground invasion—a measure he considered and rejected earlier this year. Attacks on transportation lines in southern Iran have fueled rumors that America is preparing for such a contingency by cutting off Iranian reinforcements.
A ground assault could target Kharg Island, a vital oil export terminal, Iran’s Gulf coast, or the region surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. America still maintains two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East, along with substantial amphibious forces.
Nevertheless, the magazine views this prospect as remaining far-fetched. A U.S. occupation of Kharg Island could sever Iranian oil exports, but the U.S. Navy is already enforcing a blockade from a safe distance. Occupying the island would leave U.S. forces vulnerable. Meanwhile, occupying Iran’s Gulf coast would do little to stop the barrage of projectiles launched from deeper within the country. A ground assault on Iranian nuclear sites to recover or destroy high-enriched uranium stockpiles would stand as the largest and most complex raid in military history, carrying a high probability of catastrophe.
As Trump weighs his options, Iran now holds an effective veto over how the war ends or continues. It has responded forcefully, with its strikes injuring nearly 100 American soldiers in July alone. The geographic scope of the conflict is also expanding. For the first time in three months, Iran struck Saudi Arabia, and targeted the Red Sea port of Aqaba in southern Jordan. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed significantly. On July 25, Saudi Arabia conducted airstrikes against targets in Yemen in response to Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.
On July 23, Brent crude reached $100 per barrel for the first time since May, following Houthi attacks and their announcement of a blockade on Saudi shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, before dropping to $97 the following day.
Domestically, support for Trump’s war—which has cost nearly $38 billion so far—is nearing an all-time low, with midterm elections approaching in three months.
The magazine states that Arab diplomats hope to convince Trump that a ten-day ceasefire is the best option, particularly given his hesitant stance. However, there is no reason to believe Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz or abandon its nuclear program.
Ilan Goldenberg, a former U.S. official now with J Street, a pro-Israel group, remarks: "The most likely outcome is a new normal" involving recurrent clashes, periodic airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear program, Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, and an enduring U.S. presence in the Middle East.
He adds: "I’ve worked on the Iran file for nearly 20 years. Our options are never ideal, but I have never seen things this bad. For the first time in my career, I am at a loss." — (Agencies)
