Jordan faces an increasingly complex climate equation with every additional rise in temperature, in a country already standing at "critical" limits of water scarcity, while simultaneously dealing with economic and social pressures that make its ability to bear the cost of climate damage and adapt to it "more limited."
اضافة اعلان
The issue here isn't rising temperatures as an "abstract" climate indicator, but rather their direct effects on water, agriculture, health, energy, and food security, sectors whose sensitivity intersects with the state and society's ability to respond to climate shocks that are becoming "more severe and sustained."
These risks are gaining "greater weight" as the world approaches surpassing the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels, as a new UN Environment Programme report issued yesterday warns that exceeding this threshold will not mean the end of the possibility of returning below it, but it will make the paths "costlier and more complex."
The report proposes a pathway based on "overshoot, then peak, then decline" as the "best" option for limiting the scale and duration of exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius, through a rapid and sustained reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and reaching net zero emissions.
Additional Pressures
In Jordan's case, exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius should not be viewed as an "abstract global number," but as an indicator of escalating "risks" whose effects will reach society, the economy, and natural resources, especially since Jordan is a severely water scarce country, while at the same time facing significant economic and social challenges, according to Omar Shoshan, head of the Federation of Environmental Societies (the Specialized Union).
He gave as an example the rising levels of public debt and fiscal deficit, unemployment and poverty, in addition to Jordan being a country hosting large numbers of refugees, which imposes "additional pressures" on the water, energy, education, health, infrastructure, and public services sectors.
He noted that these factors make adaptive capacity in Jordan "not merely a technical matter," but an issue tied to national security, climate justice, and the state's financial capacity.
He pointed out that economically "more fragile" countries and communities have "less" ability to invest in climate resilient infrastructure and disaster response, and to deal with heat waves, drought, and floods, at a time when their "adaptation needs are greater."
In his view, water will remain "at the forefront of risks," since rising temperatures increase evaporation and demand for water, "doubling the pressures" on "limited" resources, at a time when Jordan is already facing one of the world's most "acute" cases of water scarcity.
Therefore, investment in water use efficiency, water reuse, and protecting water sources must be treated as an "investment" in national, economic, and social security, according to him.
He believes Jordan has a "good foundation" to move forward through its climate and adaptation plans and investments in renewable energy, but the next stage requires shifting from "scattered" initiatives and projects to an integrated "national climate pathway" that links adaptation and emissions reduction, financing, economic development, and social protection.
Shoshan suggested that Jordan develop national planning scenarios that take into account different warming levels, including 1.5, 1.8, and 2 degrees Celsius and above, and identify their implications for water, agriculture, health, cities, infrastructure, and biodiversity, so that these scenarios become part of investment decisions, urban planning, and land use.
He called for giving water security "top priority," through reducing water loss, expanding the reuse of treated wastewater, harvesting rainwater and floodwater, protecting basins and groundwater sources, improving irrigation efficiency, supporting climate smart agriculture, alongside strengthening nature based solutions and protecting forests, rangelands, and wetlands, and increasing green spaces in cities.
At the same time, he affirmed that Jordan, despite its "limited" contribution to global emissions, has a "direct interest" in continuing to reduce emissions, particularly through renewable energy and energy efficiency, sustainable transport, improved waste management, and reduced methane emissions.
He attributed this to the fact that these measures don't only "serve the climate," but can achieve "direct economic and health benefits," lower energy costs, improve air quality, and create "new opportunities" for jobs and green investment.
He stressed that the success of this path also requires increased international climate financing for developing and more vulnerable countries, since Jordan should not "alone" bear the financial cost of adapting to a crisis it was not a "major contributor" to creating, especially given its economic pressures and hosting of refugees.
Therefore, access to concessional climate financing, grants, and green investments must be an "essential part" of Jordan's climate policy, according to him.
He concluded by saying that exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius does not mean "surrender," but it does mean that the margin for maneuver has become "narrower and the cost of delay higher," and that Jordan needs to treat climate change as a "developmental and economic" issue, and as water, food, health, and social "security," not as a "separate environmental file."
A Measurable National Plan
From the perspective of Professor Ahmad Al-Salaymeh, founder of the master's programs in renewable energy, environment, and climate change at the University of Jordan, exceeding the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold in the coming years does not mean reaching a "point of no return" or "surrender" to the consequences of climate change, but rather that returning below this level remains possible in the long term.
He noted that the proposed scenario is based on a "temporary" overshoot of the 1.5 degree Celsius level, followed by a peak, before temperatures begin to decline again, though achieving this requires a "large, rapid, and sustained" reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, chief among them carbon dioxide and methane.
He affirmed that the possibility of returning below 1.5 degrees Celsius will depend "to a large extent" on the world's ability to move from the pledges made during climate conferences to the stage of actual implementation, especially since many countries are targeting carbon neutrality by 2050.
He pointed out that if these commitments are translated into "real" emission reduction measures, exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius could become "temporary," with the possibility of lowering temperatures again in the long run.
As for Jordan, Al-Salaymeh affirmed that the Kingdom has "significant opportunities" to benefit from this transition, not only environmentally and climatically, but economically and developmentally as well, particularly in the energy sector.
He noted that Jordan lies within the solar belt that enjoys high levels of solar radiation, providing a "strong foundation" for expanding solar energy, alongside harnessing wind energy potential.
He added that the "rapid" advancement in energy storage technologies and falling battery prices opens the way for greater reliance on renewable energy sources.
He added that the shift toward electrification in the transport and industry sectors could play an "important role" in reducing emissions, alongside the expansion of clean energy projects and green technologies.
He stressed that Jordan needs a comprehensive and measurable national plan to deal with this stage, one that includes "clear tool" indicators and mechanisms for follow up and annual evaluation, alongside developing legislation and providing the necessary incentives to encourage investment in clean energy and green technology.
On the financing side, he emphasized the importance of the Kingdom working to mobilize genuine international climate financing from donor countries and international financial institutions, to support Jordan and other developing countries in implementing emission reduction projects and adapting to climate impacts.
He called for Jordan to move forward simultaneously on two tracks: strengthening adaptation to "existing and expected" climate impacts, and continuing to reduce emissions.
