When 70 per
cent of eligible voters express various degrees of intention not to vote in the
upcoming municipal elections, we have to ask ourselves why.
اضافة اعلان
In two
nationally representative surveys carried out by NAMA over the past few months,
nearly a third of the eligible voters said they “will vote for sure” in the
upcoming municipal elections. There are many underlying reasons for such an
outcome, and they range from diffuse to specific.
First, this “majority
withdrawal” from public life is consistent with the trend that has been
emerging over the past few years and has been confirmed in various surveys
carried out by the Center for Strategic Studies and NAMA Strategic Intelligence
Solutions. This withdrawal has been intensifying and is positively correlated
with: a) rising unemployment, b) increasingly weaker confidence in the government's
ability to address economic problems, and c) weak trust in representative institutions:
House of Representatives, municipal councils, governorate councils (after decentralization),
and political parties.
This withdrawal
is also positively correlated with growing dissatisfaction with government's
performance in education, health, transportation, fighting corruption, and the
environment, among others.
Second, there
is weak conviction among eligible voters that participation will effect change.
Some 58 per cent report that the country is heading in the “wrong direction”, yet
there is very little association between this position and voting in order to
change it.
The Independent Election Commission (IEC) has done a tremendous job over the past few years to change that perception, but a lot more work remains to be done to regain public trust in the electoral process in general, whether municipal or parliamentary; this task does not rest exclusively with the IEC, rather it is a national problem that requires a national solution.
The trend looks
like this: the more an eligible voter believes that the country is heading in
the wrong direction, the less likely that voter is to vote in the upcoming
municipal elections. Logic would suggest that a voter would express a strong
commitment to vote to change a reality s/he does not like. Empirical evidence,
however, demonstrates that 58 per cent of those believing that the country is heading
“totally in the wrong direction” said they “will not vote for sure”. This
compares to 26 percent who believe the country is heading in “the right
direction to a great extent” and said they “will not vote for sure”.
In this
context, we can detect the “confirmative voter” who believes the country is
heading in “the right direction to a great extent” and “will vote for sure”.
The conclusion
is that the majority of eligible voters does not see voting as an effective way
to effect change.
Third, there
are issues with the perceived integrity and efficacy of the municipal electoral
process. Eligible voters who said they “will not vote for sure” and those who
said they are “unlikely to vote” were asked why. Half of them explained their
positions by reporting issues of weak effectiveness and distrust in the
process. Nearly a quarter reported “no worthy candidate”.
By comparison, when
the eligible voters who did not participate in the in 2017 municipal elections
were asked why, 35 per cent of them reported issues of distrust in the process
and its effectiveness, and a quarter reported that there was no worthy
candidate.
Therefore,
there is a lot of work to be done to change this perceived image. The Independent
Election Commission (IEC) has done a tremendous job over the past few years to
change that perception, but a lot more work remains to be done to regain public
trust in the electoral process in general, whether municipal or parliamentary;
this task does not rest exclusively with the IEC, rather it is a national
problem that requires a national solution.
The writer is
chairman of NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions fares@namasis.com
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