Are you going to vote? For
years I never heard this question asked. For me, family and friends, voting was
a non-issue - there were no ‘undecided’ voters. Either people knew exactly the
candidate they would vote for or they didn't vote. Those who voted usually did
it because of family ties, family pressure to vote a certain way, or personal
promises/guarantees.
اضافة اعلان
However recently I've noticed some budding interest in voting,
myself Included! This election is different in many ways, a redesigned
parliament, redesigned parties, and redesigned districts. Because so much is
redesigned, the entire process could be different. Parties have a lot of work
ahead of them, and they need to win over thousands of voters or, frankly, many
of the parties won't survive these next parliamentary elections. They will
prioritize voter concerns, focus on youth issues, and by law include women in
top spots. In short, inclusive groups that need to persuade the public in order
to survive and enter an institution (Parliament) that now will advance national
ideas and not just compete to divide the budget into services for their home
districts.
But we voters also have a responsibility. No matter what,
political parties get several dozen seats in the next Parliament. The more of
us vote, the more influence we have over which parties (and how many) parties
make it. The fewer of us vote, the more likely that just a few large parties
get in - less diversity in ideas, representation, and less legitimacy from
citizen support. Once election day arrives, it is the voters who will decide if
this modernization in democracy succeeds or fails.
Three things you should know
Grievances differ
There is a common belief that ‘the people are angry’ or ‘the
youth have lost faith’. In a way, this is true in Jordan and in the region. But
the people are not just one entity with one grievance. The southern
governorates are angrier, have much less trust in institutions, and feel
disempowered. But their grievances are not necessarily the same as those in
Irbid - angry about poor service delivery and feeling they are not represented.
The economies and local cultures differ, the political representation differs
(for example look at the number of members of Parliament per capita for Kerak
versus Irbid), and the political history differs (more protest and civil
disobedience in the south, more trade union activism in Irbid).
And what about Amman? Last election, some areas of Amman had
less than
12% turnout. Somehow as the price of cars in a
neighborhood increases, the likelihood to vote decreases. This is not
just a Jordan problem. In many countries, those with more resources rely on
government representation less, and so don’t exercise their right to vote. A
pity.
A lot of research and data on the perceptions of Jordanian
voters exists. Any party which is not studying the resources available, in
addition to talking with as wide a swath of citizens as possible, is set to
lose.
The Hunger Games: Losers and winners
Under the previous iteration of the political parties law,
parties received 50,000 JOD just for renewing their registration. We had over
fifty parties receiving this annually even though many were inactive! Under the
new law, parties will not receive funding just for correctly submitting their
registration documents, but based on the percentage of vote they win. The
funding begins once they receive 1.25% of the votes cast. Then, a party needs
2.5% of the vote to win a seat in Parliament. They receive more funding for
every seat won, and more if the winner is a woman or youth. This means that if
we have the exact same number of votes as in 2020 - 1,387,698 - a party needs
17,346 votes just to make back any money from their campaigning. They will need
34,692 votes to win a seat in Parliament. That’s a lot considering the effort
it took them to gather 1,000 signatures for registration. What if turnout is
higher and 2 million citizens vote (over 40% turnout!) - then the party would
need 30,000 votes to receive any funding and 50,000 votes to make it into
Parliament!
This means that as parties campaign without initial funds,
campaigning will be very targeted and mostly online. But online campaigns don’t
take into account how grievances differ and can collapse into marketing. So,
there will be a strong reliance on volunteers, but volunteers also need an
incentive and a ‘reason to believe’.
This next campaign is going to be very competitive between
parties. It is almost impossible that 30 parties receive 2.5% of the vote and
all make it in. Likely, many parties won’t even reach the 1.25% to get any
funding - needing to shutter their doors due to lack of resources.
This first election for the new Parliament under the new party
rules is a game of survival for many of these groups and by late 2024, they may
not be around anymore.
Parties are national campaigning is local
This is not a European style election of Conservatives versus
Social Democrats, or right versus left. Parties have to persuade the public and
they have more than one campaign to battle as voters ask three questions 1) Why
should I vote for a party? 2) Out of thirty parties, why should I vote for
yours? How do you all differ? And 3) Why should I bother voting at all?
This campaign is different for another reason - it changes our
relationship to Parliament. If you have spent time with an MP their office
lobbies are full of visitors and their phones are constantly ringing. These are
usually requests for employment, assignments, scholarships, assistance, and
benefits. This is because MPs can provide services and the way they keep their
seats is providing enough favors and benefits to their voters. But parties
won’t be able to do that. Majoritarian candidates will still provide services
to specific districts. But parties provide a vision for the nation and can’t
promise voters benefits - their role will be different so their campaigning
needs to be different. A candidate for a party can’t promise a handful of jobs
to voters, but sells an economic plan to create employment in the region.
We all know the old campaigning of meeting with local leaders,
making agreements, courting business leaders, and securing promises from local
organizations. But for this new party campaigning, where promises of benefits
are less persuasive, the majority of voters are under 30 and live in Amman,
Zarqa, and Irbid. This has to be an urban youth focused campaign.
Many of our parties are not savvy in online communication. They
sometimes post photos on Facebook, old men sitting around a table in a small
room, smoking cigarettes, drinking tea, and eating cookies from small white
plastic plates with captions about coordination on industrial development, or
positions on tourism, or ways to redesign elections. Nothing would attract
youth voters, or convince readers that those ideas will go any further, or that
the men in that room could win seats in an election.
The parties will share a national vision, which encompasses the
spectrum of voter concerns, and create a national network of like-minded
citizens. But in order to persuade voters in those three questions mentioned
above, the campaigning has to be local - focused on their areas, their
grievances, and how the party platform would benefit people like them. If they
don’t have a platform and can’t translate it into local priorities, the party
may not make the 2.5% to get into Parliament. Any party which has not focused
on platform, brand development, media strategy, and online campaigning is set
to be one of these that don’t make it.
My Take
I would generally prefer to undergo dental surgery than do any
government paperwork, with the exception of renewing my passport since it
usually means I'm going on a vacation. I viewed voting as more paperwork.
Polling stations are usually held in a school building, a noisy crowd outside
with men shouting, waste paper everywhere - there is nothing fun about voting.
Research however shows that voter turnout can increase simply by adding a small
attraction - a festive, social atmosphere. I’d be more inclined to go vote
because it meant I can take my son out to a nice family-friendly event.
Of course, fun should not be our main concern but the
consequences and the legacy we want to leave - the present we want to change
and the future we desire. I am very surprised to find myself saying that this
is an opportunity to get more voices in the system and bring change. I, and
others, can be optimistic during a very cynical time globally in politics.
A lot can happen between now and the election. A lot depends on
the parties. If they fail to present platforms, and communicate to voters, this
will deflate the energy around the changes. We also have a lot of
responsibilities. We need to come together and decide on what we want and how
we want it. We need to know our own identities and find which party matches it.
Importantly, we need to invest. It is easy to look at thirty
parties, assumes many won’t make it, and decide to ‘wait and see’. But, of
course, if we don’t put our energies behind the parties that actually
understand and represent our interests, then of course they won’t make it. By
pre-deciding that it is not worth our time, we are condemning the whole
reform.
We need local initiatives to make
elections enjoyable, we need outreach from parties to make them informed, but
most importantly we need to make our voices heard by investing in this moment,
our future, and country.
Read more Opinion and Analysis
Jordan News
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