During
a visit to Damascus, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi called for a
global effort towards reconstruction in Syria in order to expedite the return
of refugees back to their home country. “We have offered everything we can to
ensure them a dignified life, but what we are sure of is that the refugees’
futures lie in their country.” Bashar Al-Assad’s office also
released a similar statement calling for reconstruction efforts and that
refugee return is purely a humanitarian issue which should not be politicized.
The visit and call attracted media and criticism and demonstrated Jordan’s
nuanced stance — from the
first state to call for Syria’s isolation to its recent
abstention on
a UN vote to investigate the missing 130,000 Syrians. However, the statement
was not a pro-Assad stance, nor a call to move out the refugees. Rather, it was
a continuation of a long-term, nuanced, realism which has caused global
chagrin before. Looking at Jordan’s interests, and
its stance during
the 1990/1991 Gulf crisis is useful to understanding its current positions.
اضافة اعلان
Four things you should know:
1. Armed groups: Maintaining
security along its borders has been of paramount importance for Jordan. The
presence of
non-state armed groups, whether pro-regime or opposition, has proven intolerable
for the country. Since the onset of the conflict, Jordan has allocated
almost half of
its military capacity to safeguard its borders with Syria, effectively assuming
the role of two states. However, such a burden is economically and logistically
unsustainable. Whether combating the rise of Daesh, the growing role of
Hezbollah, drones used in trafficking, cyber warfare units, managing the Rukban
area, or disrupting trafficking networks,
Jordanhas been forced to confront these challenges without a partner on the
other side of the border.
2. Trafficking: According to Syrian
opposition sources, drug factories operating under the protection of the Fourth
Division, which is linked to Hezbollah, have been discovered in the southern
Daraa governorate. These facilities are said to be responsible for
manufacturing and distributing narcotics, particularly Crystal Meth (crystal
methamphetamine), through local smuggling networks operating under the shield
of Syrian military security. Captagon and its trafficking has attracted a lot
of analysis such as here, here,
and here.
I have also discussed it extensively such as here and here.
While the news shows eye-grabbing ploys like pomegranates filled with drugs,
many of the trafficking stops are skirmishes and battles, where smugglers have
heavy weaponry and armored vehicles.
3. Refugees: Jordan hosted 1.3
million refugees at its peak,(this was in addition to 2 million
other refugee groups) and still
hosts 760,000 registered refugees and
likely many more. Jordan has diligently been fulfilling its humanitarian
obligations, hosting refugees even amidst declining
humanitarian assistance, while resentment against refugees was a hot topic
in Turkey’s recent election and
Lebanon has illegally sent refugees back into the furnace they feld. Such
tensions do not exist in Jordan, but the load has burdened Jordan’s resources
and potentially caused social strain.
4. Jordan’s stance on Syria: Jordan
and Syria have been intertwined since their founding - a complex mix of
fraternal ties — family groups are even split by the border - and underlying
suspicion — whether Hafez Assad’s attempt to assassinate King Hussein or
Syria’s continued theft of water from the Yarmouk river. Jordan’s position has
almost always been one of engagement and realpolitik despite usually being in
opposing camps. During the Cold War Syria was in the Soviet sphere, Jordan more
aligned with the US. Syria supported the PLO in its war against the Hashemite
throne. Syria is very critical of Jordan’s relations with Israel. Despite this,
Jordan's approach to its neighbor has consistently been one of pragmatic
engagement. It was among the first to call for the isolation of Bashar Al-Assad
and, over a decade later, the first to advocate for normalization. However,
grasping the security implications of such a rapprochement with the Syrian
regime demands a comprehensive evaluation that takes into account the intricate
complexities of the region. Jordan, as the frontline state, faces multifaceted
challenges that require addressing through diplomatic engagement, information
sharing, and a stable partnership. As the current conflict escalated, in
2012, Jordan opened its borders to provide humanitarian assistance and
establish refugee camps. The country's resources and infrastructure strained
under the weight of the growing refugee population. Throughout the years,
Jordan played multiple roles, serving as a transit
route and training area for opposition forces, joining the
international coalition against the Islamic State, and mediating talks
between rebel groups and Russian officials. Parallel to these actions and
periodic border closures and security concerns, Jordan has often called for
finding a political solution to the Syrian conflict and advocating for regional
stability. This is not out of Jordan’s national character, but a consistent
thread in its history with Damascus.
We have offered everything we can to ensure them a dignified life, but what we are sure of is that the refugees’ futures lie in their country.
My take:
Jordan, like other nations, acts in pursuit of its own
interests. Jordan is not a superpower to impose its interests, but it is the
tip of the spear on Syria and listening to Amman’s interests would be
worthwhile. US foreign policy looms large in the Middle East, casting a shadow
over regional dynamics. Tools such as Caesar sanctions by the US restricts
Jordan's ability to act autonomously towards its neighboring countries. Jordan
must prioritize the stabilization of its own borders. This necessitates
establishing a stable partnership with a Syrian government capable of
conducting bilateral business. Jordan has stood shoulder to shoulder with the
international coalition in the fight against Daesh and has supported the Syrian
opposition. Jordan has committed to the effort, but as international focus on
Syria diminishes over time, Jordan finds itself grappling with security threats
such as terrorism, narcotics and arms trafficking.
However, the regime of Bashar Al-Assad should not have a
free hand or be permitted to engage in unrestrained financial activities.
Sanctions on Assad and his inner circle are necessary, but it is crucial
to evaluate
their impact on civilians and neighbors. These sanctions also affect
small traders, sellers, and individuals engaged in minor money transfers and
small business expansion across the border. Jordan's interests must be
acknowledged and accommodations made.
It's been done before. During the first Bush administration,
for example, King Hussein advocated for a diplomatic solution to Saddam
Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. Unheeded during the drumbeat of war, Jordan was
sidelined but later given the sole exemption to US sanctions on Iraq,
recognizing the potential harm that they would inflict on Jordan. This approach
effectively punished Saddam's regime without inflicting unnecessary suffering.
Unfortunately, the Trump administration again sidelined Jordan (to the
detriment of its policy) and the Biden administration has not
yet made a clear policy on a solution to Syria.
Three times Jordan and Syria have had massive splits in
their relations, and every time Jordan returned with diplomacy and dialogue.
Perhaps policy should be based on frontline experience like Jordan’s, and not
tweets from think-tankers in their cubicles thousands of miles away.
This article was originally published on the SubStack Full
Spectrum Jordan.
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