The OPEC+ decision to
reduce production by two million barrels a day is rooted in a shift of the
world view of influential members of the cartel, as well as in commercial
calculations.
اضافة اعلان
In fact, many
OPEC+ members are producing less than their quota already, and the actual
reduction hovers at around 900,000 barrels per day. So the decision is clearly
political and signifies a change in how the “oil for security” formula,
especially in the Gulf, is changing to one based on diversification, not only
of alliances but, more importantly, of the pathways to those alliances. The new
paradigm is building on existing alliances; it does not entail abandoning them,
but adding a new twist: individual interests, first and foremost.
While the US sees
the OPEC+ decision as a “geopolitical move” to help Russia, there is a
realization among OPEC+ members that the US cannot do much in response, except
express disappointment, as stated by the White House spokesperson, the national
security adviser, and the director of the National Economic Council.
The decision to
reduce output is also rooted in the disappointment of the other side,
especially Saudi Arabia’s and UAE’s.
Today, the model of “effective government” is gaining grounds and more popular support, while support for democracy, especially in the Arab and African countries (where people younger than 30 constitute two thirds of the population) is witnessing significant declines.
Emirati and Saudi
diplomats and pundits often said that they were expecting a more sympathetic
American reaction when the oil and civilian installations were attacked by the
Iran-backed Houthi drones and missiles, causing disruptions to oil security.
They were also disappointed that they were not “sufficiently consulted” on the
JCPOA (the Iran nuclear deal) negotiations, and they have been positing that
their interests were not taken into account by “a strategic partner” (The US), as
they should.
The
diversification of alliances, especially in the Gulf region, hinges on a few
premises. There is a new understanding of how these countries should conduct
international politics. The new paradigm is based on a “calculated proactive”
approach. Probably one of the best descriptions of this paradigm is to be found
in the work of Mohammed Baharoon's “The keys to reading the UAE’s strategic map”.
The approach is in line with the global trend of interconnectedness on a
variety dimensions.
Most notable is
the focus on governance. The fact that democracy is backsliding globally is no
news. It coincides with a much lower American and European interest in
promoting democracy, compared to their effort particularly in the 1992-2012
period. Today, the model of “effective government” is gaining grounds and more
popular support, while support for democracy, especially in the Arab and
African countries (where people younger than 30 constitute two thirds of the
population) is witnessing significant declines. This comes on the back of the
failure of “freedom wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the rise of populist
democracy-skeptic parties in established democracies.
The outcome of the
new “freedom war” in Ukraine is going to determine whether democracy will gain
or lose, and with it, a reformed world order is bound to emerge.
Fares Braizat is
chairman of NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions, former minister of youth,
moderator of the working group on tourism as part of Jordan Economic Vision
2033, and member of the Royal Committee to Modernize the Political System.
fares@namasis.com
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