To understand the
globalized nature of our food system, look no further than your morning cup of
coffee. That jolt of caffeine comes to your table via an elaborate network of
some 25 million coffee farmers from Brazil to Vietnam linked to the world by a
far-flung supply chain of traders, roasters, financiers, shippers, grocery
stores, cafés, and, eventually, to your cup.
اضافة اعلان
Coffee is the second most traded commodity in the
world after crude oil, and it encompasses a $466 billion industry, landing at
your table in no small part due to the fossil fuels that power the ships and
create the packaging. Coffee is globalization in a mug.
But coffee is not alone. Our food system comprises a
world of ever connecting supply webs crisscrossing seas and continents,
bringing Mediterranean olive oil and California almonds, Ukrainian wheat and
Indian rice, and West African cocoa and Brazilian soybeans to markets
worldwide. Our ecosystem of food is relentlessly global, creating an abundance
the likes of which we have never seen before in human history.
That same abundance fueled by globalization has a
flip side: sudden disruptions can wreak havoc, leading to food insecurity and
mass hunger. We have experienced three major disruptive events in the past two
and a half years: the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and,
more recently, ongoing droughts and historic heat waves from the US West Coast
to Europe and China.
The latter problem, driven by rising temperatures,
could prove to be the most disruptive over the long term. Consider the havoc in
Europe today. Spain, Portugal, France, and Italy have all recently suffered
historic heat waves and some of the worst droughts on record dating back five
centuries. This one-two punch of heat and drought has lowered river levels,
withered crops, taxed electricity grids, and slowed manufacturing.
Lower river levels has meant less hydropower.
Diminishing hydropower capabilities have come at a very challenging time for
Europe’s energy infrastructure given the meteoric rise in natural gas prices.
Germany is using more coal — the most polluting fossil fuel — to get by.
However, lower river levels have even complicated coal usage: ships that carry
the coal on the Rhine River are paralyzed.
European governments have deeper buffers and
stronger supply chain safeguards than most countries worldwide. While the
current disruptions will be painful, we will not see mass levels of food
insecurity or hunger. Not so for the Horn of Africa. The most extreme drought
in four decades has left some 18 million people across Somalia, Kenya, and
Ethiopia struggling to find enough food to eat, and tens of millions face
varying levels of food insecurity. We are witnessing a humanitarian catastrophe
unfolding, driven in part by the exogenous shocks to our food system over the
past two and a half years. The Horn of Africa is a vivid example of the
climate-food nexus.
That same abundance fueled by globalization has a flip side: sudden disruptions can wreak havoc, leading to food insecurity and mass hunger.
As for the Middle East and North Africa region, the
World Food Program of the United Nations has issued a stark warning: a major
crisis is growing across the region with 73 million people across 14 countries
lacking access to sufficient food supplies. While some of the worst-hit
countries are plagued by factors beyond climate, such as war, mismanagement or
corruption, the climate-food nexus will play a prominent role in the region’s
future.
A recent International Monetary Fund report noted
that climate disasters displace 7 million people a year across the Middle East
and Central Asia. On average, climate disasters also lead to 2,600 deaths and
$2 billion in damage annually. These IMF numbers only tell the story of
disastrous events. They fail to capture the long-term health effects of
everyday air pollution or bouts of inadequate food consumption for children.
Further exacerbating the problem, the MENA region is
the most water-scarce region in the
world, according to the Population Reference Bureau. As the bureau notes, the
region is home to only 1.4 percent of the world’s renewable fresh water despite
hosting some 6.3 percent of the world’s population. Demographic pressures on
the water supply are set to persist over the next two decades.
Droughts have also hit China. Several Chinese
provinces have experienced the worst dry spells in more than six decades. This
has slowed manufacturing, disrupted supply chains, and dented Chinese demand.
China has been a major demand engine for Arabian Gulf oil and gas over the past
two decades. Any signs of faltering demand can weaken oil prices.
Extreme weather volatility should now be considered
the norm, not an outlier. Our food systems should not be surprised by such
volatility. The climate-food nexus needs better safeguards. As the next two
global climate gatherings are scheduled to take place in the MENA region — in
Egypt in 2022 and the UAE in 2023 — the climate-food nexus should be at the top
of the agenda.
This is about more than just a rising price for your
morning latte. For many in the world, the climate-food nexus is about life or
death.
Afshin Molavi is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins
School of Advanced International Studies and editor and founder of the Emerging
World newsletter. Twitter: @AfshinMolavi. Syndication Bureau.
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