The US dodged a bullet this month when
Turkey failed to assassinate one of Washington’s key allies in its fight
against ISIS. Had the Turkish drone hit its mark of Mazloum Abdi, head of the
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), three US service members escorting Abdi would
likely have died alongside him, sparking one of the most dangerous crises in
Turkish-US relations of modern times.
اضافة اعلان
The Turks missed, perhaps intentionally.
But even if Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s goal was to send a message
by deliberately firing wide, the damage has been done. Such a brazen attack
could turn already frayed US-Turkish relations into a full-blown diplomatic
tangle with incalculable consequences for NATO.
This is not the first time Americans were
in the line of Turkish fire. In November 2022, Turks’ bombs aimed at SDF
positions fell just 130m from co-located Americans. Again, the US soldiers were
unharmed.
It is not difficult to imagine Congress’s
reaction had Americans been killed in either attack. Turkey is already out of
favor on Capitol Hill for several reasons, including the government’s growing
authoritarianism, its behavior in Syria and the Aegean, its vetoing of Sweden’s
NATO membership, and its purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile
systems (which could endanger the US military’s F-35s). Congress has condemned
the Biden administration’s reluctance to criticize Turkey. Dead soldiers would
have forced the administration’s hand.
So, why would Erdogan engage in such a
risky maneuver?The obvious answer is politics. Erdogan is
running for reelection next month, and as a populist authoritarian who has
transformed the country into his own private fiefdom — most state and public
institutions have been neutered and brought under his control — he cannot
afford to lose. The attack on Abdi and American personnel demonstrates how
desperate Erdogan is. Had he succeeded, he would have parlayed it as a victory
and used it to propel him over the finish line.
The Turkish economy, already reeling from high inflation and balance of payments difficulties, desperately needs external financing and support to manage the reconstruction effort. The US is well positioned to help, but killing Americans is not the way to get it.
Erdogan has been a virulent critic of
Washington’s partnership with the Kurds in northern Syria, whom he accuses of
being terrorists. Turkey has a serious domestic Kurdish problem and has faced
an insurrection led by the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, as well as peaceful
domestic Kurdish political opposition.
The Syrian Kurds owe much of their military
training to the PKK, but there is no evidence they have ever engaged in any
activity inside Turkey or against Turkey. Nevertheless, Erdogan has sent his
army into northern Syria, displacing and occupying parts of Kurdish territory,
and carried out a relentless drone campaign against Washington’s ally. For now,
America has mostly chosen to downplay Turkish actions rather than push back.
Yet, a constant drumbeat of Turkish
government disinformation has convinced the Turkish public that it faces an
imminent threat — not only from the Kurds but also from the US. While Turkey
does have a genuine fear that Kurds in Syria could end up with an autonomous
region — after all, the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq
emerged after Washington intervened in that conflict – repressing Kurdish demands
at home nonetheless serves Erdogan’s interests.
As US Secretary of State Antony Blinken
conceded last month, Turkey has proven to be “a challenging ally,” as the
timing of Erdogan’s risky behavior demonstrates.
The recent dust-up follows two events that
presented Turkey with opportunities to lower the heat. The first was
Washington’s public calls for Ankara not to intervene in Syria in the run-up to
the May 14 elections. High-ranking US military officials, including Chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, have visited northern Syria,
sending a clear message to Turkey.
The second was the devastating February 6
earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey alone. The Turkish
economy, already reeling from high inflation and balance of payments
difficulties, desperately needs external financing and support to manage the
reconstruction effort. The US is well positioned to help, but killing Americans
is not the way to get it.
The failed attack on Abdi doesn’t obviate
the fact that Erdogan may have already jeopardized American earthquake
assistance. President Joe Biden has intentionally avoided confronting Erdogan
over the strike; keeping him at arm’s length, Biden has pointedly refused to
invite him to the White House, limiting exchanges to sidebar meetings at
international summits. In a clear rebuke to Erdogan’s strongman tactics, Turkey
(along with Hungary) wasn’t invited to the recent Summit for Democracy at the
White House. Yet Erdogan doesn’t seem deterred.
Erdogan has been a virulent critic of Washington’s partnership with the Kurds in northern Syria, whom he accuses of being terrorists. Turkey has a serious domestic Kurdish problem and has faced an insurrection led by the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, as well as peaceful domestic Kurdish political opposition.
Congress may be inclined to push Biden to
take a tougher stand. However, it would be wise to wait until after the
elections. There’s no point in giving Erdogan ammunition to score points at
home.
Still, Erdogan must be made to understand —
privately and subtly in public — that he needs to avoid dangerous gambits. To
that end, Washington should develop a coherent policy for the day after the
elections, especially if Erdogan wins. For too long, America’s policy toward
Turkey has indulged Erdogan. Faced with an economic crisis at home, a
victorious Erdogan will quickly become a needy ally. It’s best to start
preparing him now for what he’ll need to do to garner that support.
Henri J Barkey is the Cohen Professor of
International Relations at Lehigh University and an adjunct senior fellow for
Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Twitter: @hbarkey
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