A few days ago, at a closed dinner in Prague,
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece was addressing 44 European leaders
when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey interrupted him and started a
shouting match.
اضافة اعلان
Before stalking from the room, Erdogan
accused Mitsotakis of insincerity about settling disputes in the eastern Aegean
and blasted the EU for siding with its members, Greece and Cyprus, according to
a European diplomat and two senior European officials who were there.
While the others, flabbergasted and
annoyed, finished their dinners, Erdogan fulminated at a news conference
against Greece and threatened invasion.
“We may suddenly arrive one night,” he
said. When a reporter asked if that meant he would attack Greece, the Turkish
president said: “Actually you have understood.”
The outburst was only the latest from
Erdogan. As he faces mounting political and economic difficulties before
elections in the spring, he has been ramping up the threats against his NATO
ally since the summer, using language normally left to military hawks and
ultranationalists.
While few diplomats or analysts are
predicting war, there is a growing sense among European diplomats that a
politically threatened Erdogan is an increasingly dangerous one for his
neighbors — and that accidents can happen.
Erdogan needs a crisis to buoy his shaky
standing at home after nearly 20 years in power, a diplomat specializing in
Turkey said, requesting anonymity. And if he is not provided one, the diplomat
said, he may create one.
The rising tensions between Greece and
Turkey, both NATO members, now threaten to add a difficult new dimension to
Europe’s efforts to maintain its unity in the face of Russia’s war in Ukraine
and its accumulating economic fallout.
Already, Erdogan has made himself a
troublesome and unpredictable ally for his NATO partners. His economic
challenges and desire to carve out a stable security sphere for Turkey in a
tough neighborhood have pushed him ever closer to President Vladimir Putin of
Russia.
Erdogan has earned some shelter from
open criticism by allies because of his efforts to mediate between Russia and
Ukraine, especially in the deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports.
But he has refused to impose sanctions
on Russia and continues to get Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline,
while asking Moscow to delay payment for energy.
While few diplomats or analysts are predicting war, there is a growing sense among European diplomats that a politically threatened Erdogan is an increasingly dangerous one for his neighbors — and that accidents can happen.
Recently, Erdogan met Putin in
Kazakhstan, where they discussed using Turkey as an energy hub to export more
Russian gas after the pipelines to Germany under the Baltic Sea have been
damaged.
But it is the escalating rhetoric
against Greece that is now drawing special attention.
Sinan Ulgen, the director of EDAM, an
Istanbul-based research institution, said that of course there was an electoral
aspect to Erdogan’s actions. But there were also deep-seated problems that
foster chronic instability and dangerous tensions.
“Turkey and Greece have a set of
unresolved bilateral disputes,” he said, “and this creates a favorable
environment whenever a politician in Ankara or Athens wants to raise tensions.”
The two countries nearly went to war in
the 1970s over energy exploration in the Aegean, in 1995-96 over disputed
claims over an uninhabited rock formation in the eastern Mediterranean and in
2020, again over energy exploration in disputed waters.
“And now we’re at it again,” Ulgen said.
“And why? Because of elections in Turkey and Greece.”
Mitsotakis is also in campaign mode,
with elections expected next summer, damaged by a continuing scandal over
spyware planted in the phones of opposition politicians and journalists. As in
Turkey, nothing appeals to Greek patriotism more than a good spat with an old
foe.
He has sought to appear firm without
escalating. Confronted at the dinner in Prague, Mitsotakis retorted that
leaders should solve problems and not create new ones, that he was prepared to
discuss all issues but could not stay silent while Turkey threatened the
sovereignty of Greek islands.
“No, Mr. Erdogan — no to bullying,” he
said in a recent policy speech. He told reporters that he was open to talks
with Erdogan despite the vitriol, saying he thought military conflict unlikely.
“I don’t believe this will ever happen,”
he said. “And if, God forbid, it happened, Turkey would receive an absolutely
devastating response.”
He was referring to Greek military
abilities that have been significantly bolstered recently as part of expanded
defense agreements with France and the US.
Mitsotakis has also taken advantage of
American annoyance with Erdogan’s relations with Russia and his delay in
approving NATO enlargement to Finland and Sweden to boost ties with Washington.
In May, he was the first Greek prime minister to address Congress and urged
lawmakers to reconsider arms sales to Turkey.
He has said Greece will buy F-35s, while
Turkey, denied F-35s because of its purchase of a Russian air defense system,
is still pressing to get more F-16s and modernization kits, using NATO
enlargement as leverage.
But Erdogan is facing considerable
problems at home, making tensions with Greece an easy and traditional way to
divert attention and rally support.
He is presiding over a disastrous
economy, with inflation running officially at 83 percent a year — but most
likely higher — and the currency depreciating. Turkish gross domestic product
per capita, a measure of wealth, has dropped to about $7,500 from more than
$12,600 in 2013, based on Turkey’s real population, which now includes some 4
million Syrian refugees, according to Bilge Yilmaz, a professor at the Wharton
School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Erdogan has kept cutting interest rates
against conventional economic advice.
“We need to reverse monetary policy,”
said Yilmaz, who is touted as a likely finance minister should Erdogan lose the
election. “A strong adjustment of the economy will not be easy.”
There is also growing popular resentment
of the continuing cost of the refugees, who were taken in by Erdogan as a
generous gesture to fellow Muslims in difficulty.
Still, Erdogan is thought to have a
solid 30 percent of the vote as his base, and government-controlled media
dominate, with numerous opposition journalists and politicians jailed or
silenced.
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