US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's recent visit to the Middle East region is
occurring at a critical moment for both Israel and Iran. While the stated goal
of the visit is to reassure US regional allies of the strategic bond that
Washington is committed to, other pressing issues could not be ignored.
One issue is Israel's increasing likelihood to embrace a plan to strike Iran's
nuclear facilities in a bid to derail Tehran's suspected attempt to build a
nuclear bomb. The other issue is the Israeli government's callous mishandling
of events in the occupied West Bank, which could trigger a third Intifada that
neither the
US nor its regional allies are ready to deal with.
اضافة اعلان
It
is unclear if Austin’s visit to Jordan, Egypt, and Israel is meant to prepare
these countries for a possible strike against Iran or not. The
Biden administration has put negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement with
Iran on hold, despite Tehran signaling its readiness to resume talks. But, so
far, Washington has shown no interest.
At no point did Israel support the resumption of the talks with Iran, and the arrival of Benjamin Netanyahu to the helm has only exacerbated the situation. It is now apparent that Israel is seriously considering launching a strike against Iranian nuclear sites.
Meanwhile,
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has revealed that Iran has
enriched uranium at over 80 percent, nearing the level necessary to build a
nuclear bomb. This prompted IAEA head, Raphael Grossi, to visit Tehran this
week and reach new understandings with Iran. However, specifics of these
understandings are not clear as both Grossi and the Iranians are in contention.
Iran says that the over 80 percent enrichment was done by mistake — which is
hard to believe — but Grossi seems to have given Tehran the benefit of the
doubt, at least for now.
What
we do know is that Iran has breached the 2015 nuclear deal since the US walked
out of it. Since then, the IAEA and Iran have been at loggerheads regarding
online cameras and other things. Although the two sides were close to reaching
a deal at one point, non-nuclear issues, such as the designation of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist group, appear to have derailed the
talks.
The US will use diplomacy to contain Iran before any attack, likely by going to the UN Security Council to declare Iran in breach of Chapter Seven. This could give Israel the pretext to launch a preemptive attack.
At
no point did Israel support the resumption of the talks with Iran, and the
arrival of Benjamin Netanyahu to the helm has only exacerbated the situation.
It is now apparent that Israel is seriously considering launching a strike
against Iranian nuclear sites.
The
main question remains: Where does the US stand on this?
Grossi
has warned against an illegal strike, and Netanyahu was quick to denounce him.
Austin's visit will concentrate on the ramifications of a planned strike,
including whether the US should be involved. The US has been pushing to
integrate its allies' air defense system, a significant move given Iran's
ability to launch long-range missiles against Israeli targets. Iran’s has also
continued to supply rockets to Hezbollah, its proxy, despite Israeli strikes on
Syrian targets believed to be linked to Iranian armaments.
The
US will use diplomacy to contain Iran before any attack, likely by going to the
UN Security Council to declare Iran in breach of Chapter Seven. This could give Israel the pretext to launch a preemptive attack. But Iran is counting on
Russia’s support. Iran has been a major supporter of Russia’s military
operation in Ukraine. Iran’s drones have become a vital part of Russia’s
air campaign in the Ukraine.
In
context of Russia’s support, apart from a veto at the Security Council, Tehran
is hoping for a game changer: to get its hands on Russia's S-400 air defense
system.
If
Israel is contemplating launching a strike against Iran any time soon, the
window of opportunity is quickly closing.
Austin’s visit will determine what the next step would be. But, the concern is not what a strike could accomplish, but rather how Iran might react. Iran has the capacity to open multiple fronts via its proxies, a concept that Israel and the US have yet to apprehend.
Austin’s
visit will determine what the next step would be. But, the concern is not what
a strike could accomplish, but rather how Iran might react. Iran has the
capacity to open multiple fronts via its proxies, a concept that Israel and the
US have yet to apprehend.
Austin
will almost certainly ask Netanyahu to keep the far right ministers in his
government in check, as a conflagration in the West Bank during Ramadan is not
what the US or its Arab allies want to see happening. However, the problem is
that Netanyahu is no longer in control. Between the mass opposition to his
judicial reforms and the runaway ministers like Smotrich and Ben Gvir, he
appears to be out of touch and beholden to his extremist allies.
Whatever
the true purpose of Austin's visit — whether to stand up to Iran or to restore calm in the West Bank — both objectives appear to be challenging. In the two
cases the US needs to tread carefully.
Osama
Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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