As Israeli voters head to the polls on November 1 for a fifth
Knesset election in more than three years — one that some say could lead to
ending Israel’s democracy — one question is being raised by pundits over and
over again: Will the Arab vote matter this time around as it did in March 2021?
اضافة اعلان
The short answer is: not likely. Most polls point to
a record low voter turnout among Arab voters, at around 40 percent, down from
45 percent in the 2021 elections. In the 2020 elections, Arab voter turnout was
almost 65 percent, giving the Joint Arab List, a coalition of Arab Israeli
parties, a record 15 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.
A split in that alliance in 2021 led to Arab parties
winning 10 seats only. But while the Joint Arab List deputies sat in the
opposition, the head of the United Arab List (Ra’am), Islamist Mansour Abbas, handed Naftali Bennett and partner Yair Lapid his four seats, thus enabling him
to form a majority coalition government while denying Benyamin Netanyahu the
chance to make a comeback. Abbas was then hailed as kingmaker and, more
importantly, made history by leading the first Arab party in Israel into a
coalition government.
As Abbas made a pact with Bennett, a right winger
who supports settlers and is against the two-state solution, he was lambasted
by Palestinian movements and other Arab MKs.
And it was Bennett’s other Jewish coalition partners
who finally abandoned him last April, and not Abbas, who was accused of staying
in the government despite the war on Gaza and the unleashing of more illegal
settlement building in the occupied West Bank. He was thought to have betrayed
his followers when he declared last December that Israel will always be a
“Jewish state”.
The upcoming election in Israel is now being waged
between the anti-Netanyahu camp of mostly leftist and centrist parties and the
man who governed Israel the longest and now, at 72, is vying to return to power
after three years in the political wilderness.
Whether it is his camp, which now includes many
far-right voices, including an openly racist ally, Itamar Ben-Gvir, head of the
Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party, or the camp now led by caretaker premier
Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gantz, neither, according to the latest polls,
will be able to form a majority government. This is where the Arab vote
matters, again.
The voters feel betrayed by successive governments that had failed to deliver on promises to improve the lives of the Arab minority. Added to that is the fragmentation of Arab parties and the internal bickering that has spilled over, as well as the feuding between key political figures.
Ben-Gvir, a Jewish supremacist, was convicted 15
years ago for supporting a terrorist organization and inciting racism. That
alone, pundits say, should drive Arab voters to the polls in a bid to defeat
his camp. But the polls suggest that Arab parties, the Joint Arab List and the
United Arab List, will barely win eight seats. The Joint Arab List lost the
Balad party recently, which decided to split and was later disqualified from
running by the election committee.
Arab voter apathy, despite the vital importance of
this election which, according to Netanyahu’s foes, could decide the future of
Israeli democracy, has many reasons. The voters feel betrayed by successive
governments that had failed to deliver on promises to improve the lives of the
Arab minority. Added to that is the fragmentation of Arab parties and the
internal bickering that has spilled over, as well as the feuding between key political
figures.
Even though Ra’am was part of the ruling coalition,
the Bennett-Lapid government did nothing to end the inequality and marginalization
of Arab communities, which now suffer from gang wars.
In the view of most Arab citizens of Israel, all
Israeli governments are the same and the differences between Netanyahu and his
rivals when it comes to empowering the Arabs of Israel are minimal.
Still, it is not only Israelis who do not want
Netanyahu and his far–right partners to win. The Biden administration would
also hate for Netanyahu to return to power. So, too, would Jordan, which had a
troubled history of relations with the Likud leader when he was prime minister.
Unconfirmed reports have talked about Jordan trying
to convince another influential Israeli Arab leader to either end his boycott
of elections or not prevent his followers from going to the polls. Islamist
Raed Salah, who has ties to Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood, could rejuvenate the
Arab communities if he gives a nod of approval. So far he has not spoken.
While chances that Arab voters, who make up less
than 20 percent of eligible voters in Israel, may change their minds and go to
the polls in droves remain poor, some Israeli analysts believe there is still
hope and that once more Arab votes will play a decisive role in defeating
Netanyahu. Failing to do that, they say, will open the way for the extreme
right to rule, putting the future of Israel as a state and as a democracy in
peril.
Of course, after all is said and done, both camps may
fail to reach the magical 61 seats needed to form a government. The question
is, can Israelis withstand going to the polls a sixth time in a few months’
time, and would that change anything?
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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