Sunday’s attack on a bus carrying Israeli soldiers in the occupied Jordan Valley
by three armed Palestinians, which injured at least six, should not come as a
surprise, least of all to the Israeli government. Israeli security officials
have been warning that the West Bank is a tinderbox that could explode any
time. They talked about a third Intifada in the making. Some even hinted that
the fragile security situation in the West Bank could be more dangerous than
the one in Gaza.
اضافة اعلان
The attack, carried out by three relatives, one of
whom carries an Israeli ID card, was claimed by Fatah’s Al-Aqsa Martyrs
Brigade, but it is more likely that this was one more case of a lone wolf
attack, the kind of which Israel has not been able to predict and foil despite
the fact that for weeks it has been intensifying its raids against Palestinian
towns and refugee camps to round up suspected activists.
In most of these raids Israeli soldiers were accused
of gunning down — in cold blood — young Palestinian activists whose crime was
to resist the occupation.
The killing spree has resulted in the assassination
of no less than 140 Palestinian civilians in the West Bank since the beginning
of this year — including women and children. Hundreds have been arrested and
most are being held in administrative detention without being charged.
With all kinds of constraints under occupation and
with the Palestinian Authority (PA) losing control over the Palestinian
population, it is no wonder that Israeli security officials are warning of a sudden
eruption in the West Bank. A new Intifada will have dire consequences for
Israelis and Palestinians, although not in equal measure. Israel’s decades-old
ruthless occupation is reaching a climax point.
What makes this round of violence different? First,
the PA is out of touch with its own people and is unable to provide protection
to millions of Palestinians who, at least in theory, live under its control.
Second, the PA is unable to chart a way out of years
of political stalemates that have encouraged successive Israeli governments to
push for more settlement building, more expropriation of Palestinian lands,
more collective punishments, more demolition of Palestinian homes, all the
while looking the other way as Jewish settlers attack Palestinians in their
homes and fields.
And third, with the waning of the PA influence,
other players are stepping in, like Hamas, Islamic Jihad and even young Fatah
activists who are frustrated with an ailing and submissive leadership.
While Israel’s short-sighted and brutal policy is
going on — with zero accountability — Israeli politicians are engaged in heated
election campaigns that have one thing in common: not a single mention of a
political settlement with the Palestinians.
It is staggering that the fight today in Israel is
between the right, the religious right, and the far right, and none believes in
reaching a peaceful settlement that culminates in giving the Palestinians the
right to self-determination.
For successive, and future, Israeli governments the
only way to deal with Palestinian resistance to occupation, which now inches
closely toward partitioning what remains
of the West Bank and keeping Palestinian urban areas isolated from each other,
is through sheer force. But the reality is that Israel’s so-called “lawn
mowing” policy is, at the end of the day, a zero-sum equation as Sunday’s
attack has underlined.
Israel’s attempt to subjugate almost three million Palestinians in the West Bank, by force or through a lopsided policy of providing economic dividends, will be short lived. No amount of US or European aid to the PA will help stem the anger and frustration that is building up in the West Bank. We are slowly but surely arriving at a point of reckoning.
With no glimmer of hope, tens of thousands of young
Palestinians are resorting to militancy. That is Israel’s fault and no one
else’s. This is happening as Israeli voters lean more to the right and the far
right with every election cycle. So much so that extremist and openly racist
Israeli lawmaker Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was once banned from joining the army
because of his extremist ideology, is now surging ahead in the polls for the
November elections. Former premier Benyamin Netanyahu is clubbing together one
of the most radical coalitions in Israel’s history. He, too, is now ahead in
the polls.
The secular left in Israel is seen as an enemy
within by the settlers and the religious right.
Marginal and isolated calls of open and wholesale
transfer of Palestinians are slowly becoming components of mainstream party
platforms with unmistakably racist tones.
Israel’s attempt to subjugate almost three million
Palestinians in the West Bank, by force or through a lopsided policy of
providing economic dividends, will be short lived. No amount of US or European aid to the PA
will help stem the anger and frustration that is building up in the West Bank.
We are slowly but surely arriving at a point of reckoning.
If and when a third Intifada erupts, Israel will
resort to force to crush it. But unlike in Gaza, there will not be rocket
launchers to strike or shoot down, and Israel’s F-15s will have no target to
fire at. Israel will kill as many Palestinians as the world will allow it to.
But the tremors will travel well beyond the Green Line and inside Israel
proper.
Even if the Intifada is crushed — at a great human
cost — it will not resolve Israel’s conundrum. The issue will remain the
occupation and the situation will remain combustible. The question is not if
the Palestinians will survive, because they will, but if Israel can remain
united in the aftermath.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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