Economic relations between Jordan and Iraq have long been one of the strongest pillars of regional cooperation, underpinned by shared strategic interests in energy, trade, transportation, and investment.
اضافة اعلان
In recent years, this partnership appeared to be on a clear upward trajectory. Jordan's domestic exports to Iraq rose from $936 million in 2023 to $1.344 billion in 2024, before increasing further to $1.449 billion in 2025, representing cumulative growth of nearly 55% over two years. Total Jordanian exports to Iraq reached $2.64 billion in 2025, cementing Iraq's position as one of Jordan's most important export markets.
However, data from the first five months of 2026 raises legitimate questions about whether this economic momentum is beginning to slow, as several indicators warrant closer attention.
The first concerns Iraqi oil supplies, one of the cornerstone areas of economic cooperation. Although the agreement to supply Jordan with 10,000 barrels of Iraqi crude oil per day was renewed at the end of last year, Jordan has yet to receive any shipments under the renewed arrangement. This has deprived the Kingdom of an important energy source while increasing import costs at a time of mounting fiscal pressures.
The second indicator relates to the Iraq–Jordan oil pipeline project. Shortly after Iraq's new government took office, Jordan dispatched its first high-level economic delegation—led by the ministers of Industry, Energy, and Transport—to Baghdad, underscoring Amman's commitment to strengthening economic ties. Yet, just one day later, Baghdad announced a new tender to extend an oil pipeline toward Syria's Baniyas Port instead of Jordan's Port of Aqaba, a development that raises important questions about Iraq's strategic infrastructure priorities in the coming years.
The third indicator is the slowdown in bilateral trade, which appears to have lost the momentum seen in previous years. Jordan's domestic exports to Iraq grew by only 1.1% during the first five months of 2026, reaching $537.7 million, compared with $531.9 million during the same period in 2025. This modest increase stands in sharp contrast to the 8% annual growth recorded throughout 2025.
The picture becomes even clearer when examining total exports, which declined from $1.118 billion during the first five months of 2025 to $934.5 million over the same period in 2026—a 16% decrease. The decline was driven primarily by a sharp reduction in re-exports, which fell from $586.6 million to $396.5 million, a drop of 32%. This reflects weaker trade activity and reduced logistics services linked to the Iraqi market.
Meanwhile, Jordanian imports from Iraq dropped significantly, falling from $114.8 million during the first five months of 2025 to $44.6 million over the same period in 2026—a decline of 45%. Although Jordan maintained a trade surplus of $493.1 million, reflecting the continued strength of its exports relative to imports, this surplus does little to offset the broader slowdown in bilateral trade, particularly as overall trade volume has declined compared with the previous year.
The warning signs extend beyond statistics. Jordan's industrial sector continues to face operational challenges, most notably the slow movement of freight trucks through the Al-Qaim border crossing and a shortage of Iraqi trucks available to transport Jordanian exports. These issues have driven up transportation costs, increased operational expenses for manufacturers, and threatened the continuity of Jordanian product supplies to the Iraqi market.
As a result, the Jordan Chamber of Industry has called for urgent coordination with Iraqi authorities to increase the number of Iraqi trucks entering Jordan and allow them to transport Jordanian goods in line with export volumes and market demand.
These developments do not necessarily point to a political rift between Jordan and Iraq. Rather, they suggest a noticeable weakening of the economic momentum that has characterized bilateral relations in recent years. Economic partnerships are not measured by the number of signed agreements or official statements, but by the speed of implementation, the continuity of strategic projects, the smooth flow of trade, and the ability to resolve challenges facing the private sector.
The key question remains: Is the current slowdown merely a temporary consequence of present circumstances, or does it signal a broader shift in Iraq's economic priorities and regional partnerships? The answer will not be found in press releases, but in the timely implementation of the oil agreement, decisive progress on strategic infrastructure projects, and the removal of obstacles hindering trade—ensuring that Jordan does not lose one of its most important export markets, which absorbed more than $1.4 billion in Jordanian domestic exports in 2025.
