As Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine complicates European energy security, many countries are being
forced to scramble for new sources of oil and gas. For Germany, which imported
34 percent of its oil and 55 percent of its gas from Russia before the war,
diversification has become existential.
اضافة اعلان
Topping the list of potential suppliers are nations
of the Arabian Gulf. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently visited Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar to secure gas deals and stabilize skyrocketing
prices.
With those visits now in the rearview mirror, many
are wondering what was accomplished beyond a few energy contracts. Did Scholz’s
tour signal a deepening of German-Gulf relations?
While German-Gulf ties are not new — Germany has
traded with GCC states for decades — Germany is today engaging with the Gulf
from a position of vulnerability. The more that German energy security gets
entangled with the Gulf’s energy markets, the more invested Berlin will become
in the region’s stability, including its maritime security.
It remains to be
seen what comes of Scholz’s visit, particularly given that the contracts are
modest compared to what Germany lost with Russia (in recent years, Germany has
been by far the biggest EU buyer of Russian fossil fuels). In Qatar, for
instance, no liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal was concluded because of
differences over the duration of contracts that would contradict Germany’s
target of becoming carbon-neutral by 2045. A contract signed in the UAE,
meanwhile, secured just 137,000 cubic meters of LNG, a fraction of the 56.3
billion cubic meters Germany received from Russia in 2020.
But no matter what the visit yields, there is little
question Russia’s war in Ukraine has accelerated a trend that was already under
way.
As a globalized market economy that is heavily
export oriented, Germany has always prioritized the free flow of goods, stable
oil and gas prices, and the safe passage of fossil fuels. By becoming a direct
importer of Gulf energy supplies, German interest in the region’s security will
only grow.
The Arab region, including the Gulf, will also be
essential if Germany is to meet its green energy targets. Carbon neutrality
will be impossible without the import of large quantities of green hydrogen,
which countries in the Gulf are planning to produce in abundance. Germany had
already concluded hydrogen agreements with several countries, including the UAE
and Saudi Arabia, before Scholz’s trip, and the energy source was a key issue
during his visit.
While Germany — and the rest of Europe, for that
matter — is increasingly reliant on the Gulf for energy, this will not
necessarily translate into major shifts in Germany’s security policy vis-à-vis
the Gulf. The “historic turning point” — or Zeitenwende — that Scholz spoke of
in February after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not mean that Berlin would
strike a more militarized security policy in its bilateral relations. Rather,
only that Germany would dramatically increase its defense spending to modernize
its armed forces.
One aspect of German foreign policy that has changed is a softening of criticism over human rights issues in the region. The existential nature of the current energy crisis subordinates all policy areas where the two sides do not converge.
German opposition figures want Scholz to go further
and have called for security cooperation and arms sales to the Gulf, the
rationale being that it would give Germany more bargaining power and status in
the region, akin to that enjoyed by other European heavyweights, the UK and
France.
But such a policy shift will not occur under the
current government, and rightly so. No matter how many weapons Germany sold it
would never obtain substantial influence on national or regional politics given
the Gulf’s financial resources, its decade-long emancipation from the West, and
its profitable navigation of the multipolar world order.
Germany has reason for restraint. There are often
large discrepancies between Germany and some of the stances from Gulf countries
on regional conflicts like Yemen, Libya, Syria, and Iran. Given these
differences, diplomacy and dialogue will continue to top Germany’s policy
approach when tackling security challenges in the region and, as before, it
will operate within Western multilateral settings.
While arms sales and military cooperation are off
the table, Germany and its Gulf allies will continue to focus on issues such as
energy security, climate mitigation, and bilateral trade and investment. There
will likely be more coordination and joint action in humanitarian assistance
and development aid, and more cultural and societal exchanges. Each of these
areas are aligned with the EU’s strategic partnership for engagement and
cooperation with the Gulf.
One aspect of German foreign policy that has changed
is a softening of criticism over human rights issues in the region. The
existential nature of the current energy crisis subordinates all policy areas
where the two sides do not converge.
Germany has long pursued realpolitik in the region,
and Scholz is betting that criticism for putting the economy over human rights
concerns will wane and pragmatism will prevail. Odds are he is right. With
mounting hardships fueled by high inflation, soaring energy prices, and the
looming possibility of a shortage of basic goods, there is a good chance that
the government’s view will find its way to society as well.
Germany has been badly burned by an energy policy
that made it too reliant on Russian gas and the Ukraine war has led to a
rethink on longstanding defense and economic policies.
And, as Europe’s largest economy, which for decades
walked the path of dialogue and financial prudence, Germany’s fresh approach to
the Gulf will be watched closely by other EU countries as the continent looks to
navigate through what many believe is the greatest crisis since World War II.
Dina Fakoussa is an associate fellow at the German Council on
Foreign Relations and an expert on Germany’s policies toward the Middle East
and North Africa. From 2011 to 2020, she served as head of the council’s MENA
Program. Syndication Bureau.
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