Iran is unlikely to stop targeting Jordan and several Gulf states as long as U.S. military operations continue to escalate. Notably, however, Tehran's attacks on Gulf countries have become more selective during the latest phase of the conflict.
اضافة اعلان
For Jordan in particular, there may be little room to contain Iranian attacks through diplomacy or political dialogue.
Tehran appears to place little value on its relations with its Arab neighbors, as demonstrated by its recent actions toward Gulf states. It did not hesitate to strike Qatar the very mediator that played a decisive role in securing a ceasefire and helping Iran avoid greater losses.
Likewise, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps showed little regard for Oman, despite Muscat's opposition to the war from the outset and its repeated efforts to host negotiations that helped contain previous escalations.
Iran's objective extends beyond retaliating against U.S. allies or targeting American interests in the region, important as those goals may be.
The recent strikes on Jordan illustrate a broader strategy: laying the foundations for a new regional security order in which Iran holds the dominant role.
Even before the current conflict which Iran's leadership views as an unprecedented existential war the Islamic Republic sought to project influence beyond its borders by building proxy networks wherever possible.
Following this watershed conflict, Tehran is expected to push even harder to establish a new regional reality centered on military and security dominance, reinforced by control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Such a scenario would place Gulf economies under significant Iranian leverage, representing one of the most serious potential consequences of the war for both oil-producing nations and the global economy.
Iran's military leadership appears convinced that the United States and Israel failed to achieve their objectives during the forty-day conflict.
From Tehran's perspective, Israel has become less relevant in the region's emerging geopolitical landscape, while Washington has entered a phase of strategic exhaustion and will eventually be forced to accept the new reality after a limited exchange of strikes, similar to what is unfolding today.
That assessment, however, is difficult to accept. Whether under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or another government, Israel is unlikely to abandon its objectives regarding Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump remains unpredictable, often acting in ways that unsettle America's Middle Eastern allies as much as its adversaries.
Yet he is also a leader who does not readily accept defeat, even if he has yet to secure a decisive victory on multiple fronts.
Jordan has less room to maneuver than most parties involved in the conflict. It is unlikely to pursue an independent course and will instead continue coordinating closely with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states in an effort to navigate this dangerous situation.
It is well understood that Jordan neither wanted this war to begin nor wishes to see it continue.
The kingdom has taken every possible political, military, and security measure to remain outside the conflict, but the dynamics of the war have made complete neutrality increasingly difficult.
At the same time, Jordan has no intention of becoming directly involved in the fighting or responding militarily to what it considers unacceptable Iranian attacks.
Instead, it will continue relying on diplomacy and political engagement to shield the country from the conflict's consequences while fulfilling its responsibility to intercept incoming missiles and protect Jordanian territory and airspace.
So far, Arab diplomacy has been unable to deter Iran or persuade Washington to return to negotiations. Internal divisions within Iran have further complicated efforts to revive diplomatic talks.
For now, no clear path out of the crisis exists. Much depends on the next move by President Trump whether through diplomacy or military action. Otherwise, the region risks sliding into a prolonged war of attrition that would leave the Middle East, and much of the world, mired in instability and uncertainty.
