Amid growing concerns over energy security in Europe resulting from the war on Iran, coal is gradually resurfacing as an alternative for power generation. This shift comes as natural gas prices soar and global supply chains face significant disruptions.
اضافة اعلان
Energy market data reveals that the price of thermal coal—used in power plants—has risen by approximately 20% since the onset of the Israeli-American war on Iran, reaching nearly $135 per ton. This surge is driven by nations scrambling for alternatives to natural gas. Typically, energy prices move in tandem, as coal and gas are often interchangeable in electricity production.
With the spike in global gas prices, operating coal-fired power plants has become more economically viable for several European nations.
Market Comparison: 2022 vs. 2026
According to the Financial Times, the current rise in coal prices is expected to be more limited compared to the sharp spike in 2022 following the Russia-Ukraine war, when prices quadrupled to over $400 per ton within weeks.
Why the current impact is different:
Reduced Capacity: Europe’s coal power capacity has declined significantly due to energy transition policies. ICIS estimates that coal-fired production capacity on the continent has dropped by about 40%. Notably, the UK shuttered its last coal power plant in 2024.
Stable Supply: Global coal supplies are currently less strained than in 2022. Major nations maintain high stockpiles, and China—the world's largest producer and consumer—is expanding its mining capacity.
Global Demand and Environmental Impact
Despite being one of the most polluting energy sources, economic pressures are forcing a temporary return to coal.
Indonesia: As a top exporter, Indonesia previously pledged to cut exports (roughly a tenth of global maritime shipments) but may backtrack to capitalize on high revenues.
IEA Estimates: The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global coal demand reached a record high in 2025, rising 0.5% to 8.85 billion tons, fueled by rising electricity consumption in major economies.
Energy Mix Trends
Data from the Ember energy think tank shows that in 2025, electricity generated from wind and solar in the EU surpassed fossil fuels for the first time, accounting for 30% of total generation compared to 29% from coal, gas, and oil combined.
Conclusion: Analysts suggest that while the long-term trend favors renewables, coal may retain a reserve role in Europe’s energy mix if gas prices remain high or supplies continue to falter due to geopolitical instability. (Al Jazeera)
