The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global oil supplies will experience a sharp decline in 2026 as the repercussions of the war in Iran continue and flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain volatile.
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In its monthly report, the Agency stated that global oil supplies will drop by approximately 3.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026—assuming a gradual resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz starting in June—compared to previous estimates that suggested a decline of 1.5 million bpd.
The report added that total global oil supply will fall short of demand by approximately 1.78 million bpd in 2026, a stark contrast to a previous forecast of a 0.41 million bpd surplus.
The IEA further noted that it expects global oil demand to decrease by about 420,000 bpd in 2026 due to the war, compared to earlier estimates that predicted a drop of about 80,000 bpd.
Additionally, the Agency estimated that the total loss of global supplies resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February has reached approximately 12.8 million bpd. — Reuters
