Trump Assassination Scenario: Who Presses the Button to Respond to Iran?

Trump Assassination Scenario: Who Presses the Button to Respond to Iran?
Trump Assassination Scenario: Who Presses the Button to Respond to Iran?
U.S. President Donald Trump hinted that he had left standing orders for the U.S. military to destroy Iran "at levels never seen before" if Tehran carried out its ongoing threats to assassinate him.اضافة اعلان

However, the U.S. government has no legal mechanism allowing the establishment of an automatic, pre-authorized order to carry out an immediate military response upon the president's death, according to the Associated Press.

Under the U.S. Constitution and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, power is automatically transferred to the vice president if the president is killed. Accordingly, J.D. Vance immediately becomes Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and the decision-maker regarding any possible military response.

In such a scenario, Vance could implement what Trump had called for, but he could also choose not to abide by his predecessor's orders or to respond in a different way.

Garrett M. Graff, author of Raven Rock: The Story of the U.S. Government's Secret Plan to Save Itself While the Rest of Us Die, said: "The United States, for many reasons, has never adopted a technical system such as a 'dead man's switch.'"

He explained that the United States has extensive plans to ensure the continuity of government in the event of a nuclear attack or a major catastrophe that destroys most government institutions in Washington. However, these plans do not permit automatic retaliatory strikes merely upon the president's death, even if he had previously recommended such action.

Nevertheless, Trump wrote on Saturday on Truth Social that Iran had threatened "to assassinate me or attempt to assassinate me," adding that 1,000 missiles were "ready for launch and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands more to follow immediately if the Iranian government carries out its threat."

Hours later, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that Iranians would continue to avenge the killing of his father, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the first U.S. and Israeli strikes that began the war in late February, and whose funeral ceremonies were held across Iran this week.

Mojtaba Khamenei said in a speech broadcast on state television: "We pledge to avenge your blood (...) against the criminal and depraved killers. This revenge is the will of our nation and it must certainly be fulfilled."

The White House did not respond on Saturday to questions regarding the fate of the military orders Trump said he had issued if he were assassinated.

During the funeral ceremonies, participants raised banners and slogans calling for the killing of Trump alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Wall Street Journal reported this week that Israel had informed U.S. officials of new Iranian plots to assassinate Trump. The White House declined to comment, but Trump appeared to refer to those threats during the NATO summit in Turkey, saying: "They want to get rid of the leader of the United States... me."

Sabrina Singh, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary in former President Joe Biden's administration, said: "We know that Iran seeks to target senior U.S. officials." She added: "These threats must be treated seriously."

The Response Will Not Be Automatic

The United States is likely to respond if its president is assassinated, but the response will not be automatic. Trump had previously survived two assassination attempts inside the United States during his 2024 election campaign. In April, there was also an armed intrusion at the White House Correspondents' Association dinner that he attended.

During his return from Turkey this week, Trump boarded an older Air Force One aircraft instead of the newer aircraft the United States had received as a gift from Qatar, raising new security questions after images of the aircraft—which cost about $400 million to modify—showed that it did not include some of the missile detection systems and defensive measures found on older models.

This came as the United States and Iran resumed exchanging strikes, placing the preliminary agreement reached by the two sides last month to end the war under renewed test.

Responding to a question about the Iranian threats, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One: "I am their number one target."

Graff said that over the years the United States had developed plans specifying how the authority to issue orders for the use of nuclear weapons would be transferred in the event of a surprise attack on the country. During the Cold War, those plans included keeping airborne command centers in continuous flight, with one carrying a general capable of issuing launch orders if Washington were destroyed.

He added: "I believe Trump means that he left standing orders for the Pentagon to proceed with attack procedures if he is killed." However, he explained that there are "strong reasons to question the legality of such orders, because the authority to order the use of nuclear force passes immediately upon the president's death to the vice president or constitutional successor, and the final decision rests with that person alone."

He pointed out that Trump's post referred only to launching missiles at Iran, something the United States has done many times since the outbreak of the war, and did not include any explicit threat to use nuclear weapons.

Graff added that Trump could simply give personal instructions to Vance, such as: "If I am killed, strike Iran with nuclear weapons," which he said would be "more logical and legally clearer."

Similar Warnings

It is unusual for Washington to receive information about credible threats targeting the U.S. president or other senior U.S. officials from Iran or other foreign adversaries. Such information is usually conveyed through classified security briefings, but it is rare for a president to publicly announce that he is personally being targeted.

This is not the first time Washington has warned Iran over threats against Trump.

In 2022, the Biden administration warned Iran against attacking American citizens after the Department of Justice announced that a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had plotted to assassinate John Bolton, Trump's National Security Adviser during his first term.

Then-National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said: "Iran will face severe consequences if it attacks any American citizen, whether still serving or having previously served the United States."

Two years later, during Trump's election campaign against Democrat Kamala Harris, the Biden administration issued another warning to Iran, stating that any attack on Trump would be treated as an act of war. – (Agencies)