When Russia was building up troops on the Ukrainian border
ahead of the February 24 invasion, local sources reported that Syrian fighters
were already registering for deployment. Claims that recruitment efforts were under way were not particularly surprising – they mirrored earlier deployments
of Syrian mercenaries by Russia in Libya, among other places.
اضافة اعلان
These reports gathered steam after President Vladimir Putin
gave the green light on March 11 for “16,000 volunteers” from the Middle East
to be deployed to fight in Ukraine. Despite the escalation of the war, there is
still no hard evidence that Syrians have arrived or started fighting in
Ukraine. It appears logistics, combined with how much the Kremlin needs more
boots on the ground, has postponed their arrival. But as the conflict continues
to go badly for Russia, a mobilization of Syrian mercenaries can not be ruled
out.
Syrian fighters being used abroad is nothing new. A decade
of brutal conflict has led to a lack of opportunities at home and little hope
of a stable future. What many young men do have, however, is experience in
combat – a skill which is in significant demand, both locally and abroad.
For several years, Syrians from both pro-regime and
opposition groups have been recruited and sent to fight in Libya. They were
also used in the 2020 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the
Nagorno-Karabakh region. There have even been reports of Syrian mercenaries
being sent to Venezuela and the Central African Republic. The growing use of
Syrian mercenaries plucked from either side of the conflict at home has allowed
Russia, and Turkey, to pursue their foreign-policy goals at low cost and under
a cloak of deniability.
In the last three months, there have been first-hand
accounts of the recruitment process under way in Syria’s regime-held areas.
Mirroring previous efforts, the recruitment is reportedly carried out by the
Russian Wagner Group in coordination with local intermediaries, including
private security firms, former rebel forces and pro-regime factions.
In terms of incentives, the mercenaries are offered monthly
salaries ranging from $1,000 to $3,000 depending on experience. Even the lower
figure is more than 10 times the average paycheck they could earn in Syria. The
fighters are also offered compensation for injury or death.
According to European intelligence officials, 40,000 Syrians
have signed up to fight in Ukraine and at least 150 of them already arrived in
Russia. Yet, there is still no verified evidence to prove that any Syrian
mercenaries have reached the front lines.
Regardless of what happens in Ukraine, the lack of financial opportunities and instability at home means young Syrian men have become a commodity for export to the world’s war zones
The logistical difficulty of transporting them to the
battlefield might be one of the reasons for this. Moscow would first need to
get the fighters from different areas inside Syria to its military airbase in
Hmeimi, Latakia. The fighters would then be flown to Russia before being
deployed to Ukraine. These mercenaries are usually used as foot soldiers,
therefore, Moscow would need to transport a substantial number for there to be
a significant military impact on the battlefield.
But the difficulty in moving hundreds of fighters is not the
only reason for the lack of deployment. Despite the scale of its military
operation in Ukraine, Russia still has vast resources to use both against its
neighbor and continuing the military support that helped Bashar Al Assad cling
to power in Syria. Moscow is probably questioning the value that would be
gained from using Syrians in Ukraine.
While Russia has typically relied on Syrian mercenaries in a
proxy war like Libya, Moscow is largely using its own troops in Ukraine. This
means that Russia is not in desperate need for boots on the ground, other than
to offset the domestic political damage to Putin from Russian casualties.
Moscow has already drawn on forces from Chechnya, which is ruled by Putin
loyalist Ramzan Kadyrov. With Moscow claiming that it is shifting focus to the
east of Ukraine after failing to take Kyiv, does Russia really need more
foreign forces at this stage?
In addition, Syrian mercenaries are not an elite force, they
lack discipline and, because they are recruited individually, the ability to
fight as a unit. They neither know the terrain in Ukraine nor do they speak the
language to swiftly coordinate with Russian forces. More importantly, deploying
foreign mercenaries would further stain the reputation of Russian forces and
deepen the rift with the West.
In that case, why would Russia’s intermediaries spend three
months gathering the details of 40,000 Syrians without Russia’s blessing or
instructions? Moscow might have aimed to portray the process as a sign of
international support for its Ukraine war. Putin already claimed that people
from the Middle East who are volunteering to fight in Ukraine are “motivated by
a desire to help those living in Donbas”.
That said, it would be wise not to entirely rule out the
possibility of Syrian mercenaries appearing in Ukraine. The Ukrainian
resistance to the invasion has been far more fierce than initially anticipated
by Moscow. Therefore, a prolonged conflict in Ukraine might increase Russia’s
need for expendable fighters.
Regardless of what happens in Ukraine, the lack of financial
opportunities and instability at home means young Syrian men have become a
commodity for export to the world’s war zones – a commodity that Russia, among
others, will continue to exploit.
The writer is a Syrian columnist and a consulting associate
fellow of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program.
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