Israel’s plan to launch a ground offensive
into the heavily populated enclave of Rafah, nestled close to the Egyptian
border in the Gaza Strip, could bring relations between
US President Joe Biden and
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to a tipping point.
Netanyahu has
angered the White House by ignoring US warnings regarding the planned incursion
into Rafah, where more than 1.4 million Palestinians have sought refuge and are
living under horrendous conditions.
اضافة اعلان
Already, Biden has changed his tone on
Israel’s four-month
war on Gaza by calling the Israeli response “over the top”
about the killing of more than 28,000 Palestinians so far and the vast
destruction of at least 60 percent of civilian infrastructure, rendering more
than 1.8 million homeless and displaced.
Privately, Biden is reported to have used foul
language to describe Netanyahu’s rebuff of US attempts to conclude a negotiated
lengthy truce coupled with a
captive release. Instead, Netanyahu has rejected
what he called Hamas’ terms that included a conditional ceasefire and an
Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and vowed to push into Rafah to secure a decisive
victory.
Israel’s announcement that it plans to launch
a
ground operation in Rafah has been rejected by the EU, the UK, the UN, as
well as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt. All have warned that such an incursion
will result in a horrific human toll. Rafah has become a tent city where tens
of thousands of Gazans have fled from Gaza City, Jabalia, Braij, and other
refugee camps, as well as Khan Yunis, where Israel has said it had
dismantled Hamas’ main operational headquarters and killed thousands of its fighters. It now
says it needs to enter and clear Rafah from the last four battalions belonging
to Hamas, where it believes most of the Israeli captives are being held.
In response to the fact that Rafah is now home
to over a million Gazans, Netanyahu had ordered his army to prepare an
evacuation plan without offering much detail. He suggested that Rafah residents
head to the northern part of the strip, but the UN and other aid agencies
warned that much of the north has become a wasteland with no access to
humanitarian aid. The logistics of
moving such vast numbers of civilians,
already suffering from malnutrition and disease, debunks
Netanyahu’s suggestion that his army has the safety of civilians as a priority. Hundreds of
Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli military as they fled to so-called
safe areas in the recent past.
But it is not only the fear of a bloodbath straining Biden’s relationship with Netanyahu. To balance his unequivocal support of Israel after the October 7 Hamas-led attack, Biden has promised to open a clear path towards the fulfillment of a two-state solution, i.e., the creation of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu has flatly rejected Biden’s premise and vowed that Israel will have absolute control over all the territories west of the River Jordan.
But it is not only the fear of a bloodbath
straining
Biden’s relationship with Netanyahu. To balance his unequivocal
support of Israel after the
October 7 Hamas-led attack, Biden has promised to
open a clear path towards the fulfillment of a two-state solution, i.e., the
creation of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu has flatly rejected Biden’s premise
and vowed that Israel will have absolute control over all the territories west
of the River Jordan.
Added to this, he has also brushed off Biden’s
suggestion that Gaza is part of the future Palestinian state and that the
Palestinian Authority (PA) must take over once Hamas is defeated. Netanyahu has
affirmed that Israel will have complete and indefinite security control over
Gaza. His far-right coalition government has been carrying out security
operations in the occupied West Bank, killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians
and destroying infrastructure while allowing Jewish settlers to go on the rampage,
terrorizing Arab residents of neighboring villages.
Extremist ministers in his Cabinet have been
taking steps to weaken and defund the PA. At the same time, Netanyahu himself
has said that he will not repeat the
historical mistake of Oslo that created
the PA.
Biden faces pressure from America’s Arab
allies. For Egypt, a Rafah offensive will almost certainly push tens of
thousands of fleeing Palestinians across the border and into Sinai. So worried
is Cairo that it had deployed tanks and air defense systems close to the
border. Egypt has also told Israel that taking control of the so-called
Philadelphi Route will not be tolerated. Its most recent warning to Israel
hinted that any breach could lead to the suspension of the peace treaty between
the two.
The Biden administration had hoped to entice
Netanyahu by reviving normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But
Riyadh had dampened Washington’s hopes by stressing that Israel must first end
the war in Gaza and commit to a clear path towards a Palestinian state before
such talks can commence.
America’s Arab allies now believe that the
Biden administration has no leverage over Netanyahu, whose defiance has
humiliated and frustrated the US administration. They want to see regional
de-escalation taking place, especially as Israeli crimes in Gaza have inflamed
popular sentiments and heightened tensions in South Lebanon, the Red Sea, Iraq,
and Syria.
On another front, the International Criminal Court's (ICJ) initial ruling last month has dealt a heavy blow to Israel’s closest allies, especially the United States. The court concluded that Israel had committed some of the acts alleged by South Africa. ICJ president Judge Joan Donoghue has said the court has found a prima facie case of genocide. It asked Israel to take measures to protect civilians in Gaza and adhere to international law. It also called on Israel and South Africa to present a report within 40 days showing that such measures have been taken.
But for Biden, Israel’s war has also become a
domestic issue in a decisive election year. Polls show that young Democratic
voters are overwhelmingly opposed to his support of Israel and are in favor of
an immediate ceasefire. Polls also show that Biden is at risk of losing the
Arab-American and Muslim-American votes in November because of the war in Gaza.
On another front, the
International Criminal Court's (ICJ) initial ruling last month has dealt a heavy blow to Israel’s
closest allies, especially the United States. The court concluded that Israel
had committed some of the acts alleged by South Africa. ICJ president Judge
Joan Donoghue has said the court has found a prima facie case of genocide. It
asked Israel to take measures to protect civilians in Gaza and adhere to
international law. It also called on Israel and South Africa to present a
report within 40 days showing that such measures have been taken.
But Israeli conduct in Gaza has not changed
since the ICJ’s ruling. Thousands of civilians have since been killed due to
indiscriminate bombing, snipers targeting civilians, and blowing up residential
buildings as well as schools, mosques, shelters, and hospitals while hindering
the delivery of life-saving aid.
In an attempt to put pressure on Netanyahu,
the Biden administration has imposed sanctions on radical Jewish settlers in
the
West Bank. It has issued a directive attaching human rights conditions to
the use of US military aid. The directive authorizes a swift cutoff of military
assistance to countries that violate international protections of civilians.
But despite all this, Netanyahu remains
defiant and indifferent to Biden’s qualms, with eyes focused solely on the
local Israeli scene where his political survival is now tethered to the outcome
of the war on Gaza. A total victory, regardless of the political and economic
cost, is his only concern, even if that means a breach with the Biden White
House and severe damage to Israel’s ties with its Western allies, not to
mention a possible indictment by the ICJ.
Netanyahu is betting that a vulnerable Biden
will blink first and that Israel’s allies in Congress will come to his rescue
even if the US president takes off the gloves and challenges the rogue Israeli
premier. His gambit appears to be working.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
Disclaimer:
Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Jordan News' point of view.
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