As Israel’s war on Gaza enters its third
week, there is still no indication that a ceasefire will take place soon,
despite growing public pressure in the US and other Western countries for an
immediate pause so that essential humanitarian convoys can go through
uninterrupted.
اضافة اعلان
Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knows that bowing to pressure now and accepting a truce will send the wrong
message to an
angry Israeli public. It will also mean that the declared
objective of the war, which is the destruction of Hamas and the dismantling of
its infrastructure, has not been achieved. There is a chance, though, that he
may accept a short-term truce to allow for the release of some, or all,
hostages taken by Hamas on 7 October.
The sheer number of
Israelis captured by Hamas has put pressure on Netanyahu and his war cabinet to stop the war and
accept a prisoner swap. That too will bring the Netanyahu government down once
such a deal is done.
The sad reality is that as
Israel seeks to avenge those who were killed on that day, the people of Gaza are being
subjected to an unprecedented form of collective punishment; with thousands
killed and many more injured amid a horrific humanitarian crisis, not to
mention the levelling up of entire residential blocks. Over one million
Palestinians are now homeless and have been displaced.
Its performance so far has eroded the initial
global sympathy
Israel’s allies came out in support of its
right to self-defense and later called on it to respect the rules of war and
protect civilians. But its performance so far has eroded the initial global
sympathy that it received in the first few days following the Hamas attack.
Western leaders will have to deal with the effects of the public outcry at the
ballot box.
The reluctance to carry out a ground invasion
after 20 days and substituting that with aerial and naval bombardment has
turned global
public opinion against Israel. It may win this war, but it has
lost considerable political assets abroad.
For Israel, the day after will bring Netanyahu’s emergency government down. The Israeli public is demanding a complete and impartial investigation into the events that took place on 7 October, how one of the most technologically advanced security fences in the world was readily breached with virtually no warning and no resistance. The inquiry will end Netanyahu’s political career. He will be held responsible for the gross security and intelligence failures.
But let us imagine for a moment that the war
is stopped. What happens next?
Israel cannot stay in Gaza, and at one point,
it must withdraw
If Hamas is destroyed, which will not happen
without a full ground offensive and the reoccupation of the Gaza Strip by
Israel, what are the possible unfolding scenarios? Israel cannot stay in Gaza,
and at one point, it must withdraw. But who would take over? This is one of the
most challenging questions facing Israel, its allies, and the international
community. All options are problematic.
Egypt and the rest of the world will never
accept the Israeli notion that millions of Gazans can be forced to evacuate
into Sinai.
Israel will open a Pandora’s Box if it carries such a scheme
through.
For Israel, the day after will bring
Netanyahu’s emergency government down. The Israeli public is demanding a
complete and impartial investigation into the events that took place on 7
October, how one of the most technologically advanced security fences in the
world was readily breached with virtually no warning and no resistance. The
inquiry will end Netanyahu’s political career. He will be held responsible for
the gross security and intelligence failures.
That failure, which was preceded by the
extraordinary polarization of
Israeli society as a result of Netanyahu’s Far
Right government’s controversial policies, will also weaken the extremists who
have dominated Israeli politics for the past few months. A more center-right
government is likely to be formed, and that may open the path to a peaceful
resolution to the Israel/Palestine conflict.
Western double standards
It is hoped that Israel will learn the
lessons of appeasing Hamas, mainly by Netanyahu himself, for years at the
expense of the PA, which resulted in the October debacle. Failure to absorb the
lessons of this war could result in future crises.
But let us imagine for a moment that the war is stopped. What happens next?
On the international level, two things need
to be done: One is an independent and complete investigation of Israel’s
performance in this war. The bombing of residential towers, houses, churches,
and mosques, in addition to threatening to destroy hospitals, cannot be
excused, no matter the reason. War crimes have been committed, and
Israeli impunity must end.
The second thing that the international
community must do is to revive the peace process, which Netanyahu had sidelined
for more than a decade. The world and, indeed, the region cannot tolerate the
failure to implement the two-state solution any longer. Western double
standards must end, and so must
Israel’s impunity. Palestinians deserve
justice, and it’s time that they should get it.
Failure to carry out these objectives will
bring down the entire edifice of a rule-based world order. The Global South
will see everything the West says and does with suspicion and doubt. The
integrity of institutions such as the United Nations is under scrutiny, raising
doubts about the stability of the current global order.
One thing is sure: the world will undergo
many changes once the dust of this war settles.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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