On October 13th, Israel notified the international community
that 1.1 million Palestinians from Northern Gaza needed to evacuate to the
south, within 24 hours. And dropped flyers on the population stating the same.
It also re-supplied the southern area with water and electricity in an attempt
to make Palestinians more willing to move. This is a crucial step for Israel’s
continued isolation of Gaza and is not a mere preparation for a ground
invasion.
اضافة اعلان
Three Things You Should Know:
Leadership in TurmoilThere are two embattled figures driving the conflict forward.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, faces a web of legal challenges,
internal political turmoil, and the likely disintegration of his government.
Notably, ending the ongoing war doesn't align with his immediate political
interests. Additionally, Israeli Minister of Defense General Yoav Gallant, due
to his role in Operation Cast Lead, or as it's hauntingly remembered, "The
Massacre of Gaza," 2008-2009 which resulted in the death of around 1,400
Palestinians (in this current war the death toll is almost 3 thousand and
counting). What these two leaders have in common is an unfinished legacy
and no incentive to stop.
Northern Gaza: A Bleak Strategic Vision
Israel's strategic actions in Northern Gaza paint a grim picture
of a calculated military operation. The relentless bombardments serve as a
coercive measure to drive the populace toward evacuation, predominantly to the
southern regions. This tactical move serves two critical purposes: it limits Hamas's
capabilities by making it reliant on long-range missiles, effectively stripping
them of their key arsenals, including the notorious Katusha rockets and drones.
Furthermore, it provides the Israeli military an invaluable operational zone
for potential swift incursions. Carving out a 19-kilometer military zone,
Israel aims to isolate the area, depriving its residents of essential
resources, such as water and energy.
Impending Sanctions: A Gathering Storm
We are yet to see if Hamas will be designated as a terrorist
group or not - but most probably the US will introduce sanctions to limit Hamas
financing and backing - this will inevitably have dire consequences on the
people of Gaza.
The Israeli ambassador to the UK in a morning show interview
argued that Israel takes care of Israeli citizens, and for Gaza journalists
should talk to Hamas. This is wanting a situation both ways. By giving Gaza
over to Hamas’ control, Israel is justified in isolating Gaza. But when Hamas
needs to be sanctioned or punished or eradicated - as Israel says is its goal -
it is impossible to extricate the group from its control of every aspect of
Gazan life. This is a failure of governance by Israel. By not extending
development, rule of law, and elements of democracy to Gaza, they made it very
difficult to single out Hamas.
If Hamas is eradicated, this leaves a large vacuum in Gaza which
neither Israel nor the international community are discussing. If Hamas
survives these measures, the prospects for Gaza's reconstruction and humanitarian
aid access appear increasingly bleak.
My Take:While international calls for humanitarian relief and temporary
ceasefires increase, Israel is still pushing through with a constant
bombardment and a blockade on aid, food, fuel, and water. Israel has also
announced its ground invasion but yet to start it. This ground invasion would
undoubtedly unleash catastrophic outcomes. Notably, Hamas appears better
prepared for such a scenario (or was at the time), for reasons I mentioned in
my previous writing. Hamas still holds approximately 190 hostages for whom
Israel will not negotiate as its primary objective remains the eradication of
Hamas.
In this critical moment, the international community must pivot
its attention towards the post-war landscape, as the outcome in Gaza may wield
substantial influence over regional dynamics and the stability of neighboring
nations for an extended and uncertain period.
We have a population calling for vengeance, two leaders (at
least) who benefit from continued conflict, a land given over to Hamas as a
strategic move, and 19 kilometers for a tactical move that may cause one of the
largest civilian death tolls of the 21st century.
19 kilometers is not for civilian
safety. It is not for ease of a land invasion. 19 kilometers creates a no-man’s
land. A buffer zone. This is to limit the strike capacity of Hamas rockets, and
to permanently make Gaza a security zone - not an area of peace and development
and rule of law.
Katrina Sammour was first published on Full Spectrum Jordan, a weekly newsletter on SubStack.
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