While the world is focused on
Israel’s two-month-old military campaign in the Gaza Strip, the northern front is quickly heating up.
A few days after Israel declared war on Hamas and started pounding the besieged
strip ahead of a ground invasion, tensions along the Israel-South Lebanon
border began to rise. A few skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel’s military
soon developed into a daily exchange of firepower, forcing Israel to vacate
northern settlements and towns in a 3 to 5-kilometer perimeter south of the
Lebanon border.
اضافة اعلان
The US dispatched two carrier groups to the Eastern
Mediterranean, sending a stern message to Tehran and its proxies not to
interfere in
Israel’s war on Gaza. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrullah
appeared, after the group released a couple of videos raising the level of
suspense, to indicate that the his people were not about to break the truce
with Israel, under UN resolution 1701, but will respond to provocations within
the so-called “rules of engagement.”
But that did not stop the two sides from targeting each
other in what can be described as low-intensity fighting. That
forced Israel to mobilize three armored divisions to the north; something that Hezbollah said
will relieve pressure on Hamas. Some of the skirmishes were deadly. While
Israel was careful not to release figures concerning its own casualties,
Hezbollah began, well into the first month of the Gaza campaign to publish the
names of its own fighters who fell during operations “in support of the people
of Gaza and the gallant resistance.” These operations were described as
“support” and “diversions” costing Hezbollah over 100 of its fighters so
far. On a few occasions, when Israel
targeted civilians in southern Lebanon, the group launched rockets that hit
Kirayt Shmona, one of the larger urban centers in the Upper Galilee, which is
only three kilometers west of the Lebanese border. Before it was evacuated it
was home to more than 22,000 Israelis.
A sudden end of the war on Gaza will mean defeat for Israel and will have far-fetched repercussions for the country, but most of all for Netanyahu
Also, in response to aerial
Israeli bombardment of southern
Lebanese towns and villages, Hezbollah fired a few heavy rockets, called
Burkan, with large payloads. It also admitted to sending drones across the
borders, a few of which sounded the alarm in northern Israel. On a number of
occasions, it released videos of its fighters targeting Israeli armor, radars
and fortifications. It claimed that it had killed and injured Israeli soldiers.
In addition to shelling southern Lebanon,
Israel launched anumber of aerial raids against Damascus airport, southern Syria and Qunaitra in
the Golan. Some of these strikes reportedly killed Iranian advisors and
Hezbollah fighters.
Rising tension at the
border
But last week and earlier this week a noticeable spike in
the scope of such exchanges resulted in Hezbollah firing rockets as deep as
nine kilometers into Israeli territory in response to Israel’s bombing of
Lebanese towns. On Monday, one
Israeli strike killed the mayor of the Lebanese
town of Taybeh and injured others. A day before Israeli fighter jets destroyed
an entire neighborhood in Aitaroun village on the border with Israel. In the
past few days Israel targeted journalists covering the skirmishes from the
Lebanese side, UNIFIL and Lebanese army positions.
The rise in tensions along
Israel’s northern borders comes
in the wake of strong warnings and ultimatums made by a number of senior
Israeli officials that the situation in the north must be dealt with. According
to Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, Israel delivered a message to Hezbollah via
UNIFIL that anything, military or civilian, spotted within a three-kilometer
radius along the border with Lebanon would be targeted. In response, Hezbollah
responded that it too will consider anything moving within three kilometers of
the border with Israel a legitimate target.
Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu issued a strong warning to
Hezbollah last week that escalations along the border will mean “turning Beirut
into Gaza.” A similar warning was issued by Far Right Minister of Finance
Bezalel Smotrich. Also last week,
Israeli National Security Council head Tzachi
Hanegbi claimed, “We will change the reality on the border with Lebanon and we
will solve the problem militarily if not diplomatically.”
Victory in Gaza
elusive
Such statements from senior
Israeli officials should be
taken seriously for a number of reasons. Israel’s war in Gaza is not going well
after more than two months despite the heavy civilian toll and the global
outcry denouncing Israel’s reckless regard for innocent lives and non-military
infrastructure. The
Biden White House is coming under unprecedented pressure
both domestically and from allies to call for a ceasefire.
Reportedly,
Netanyahu and his war Cabinet have less than a
month to wrap up the military campaign. But by Israeli and other accounts that
is not enough time to achieve the evasive victory in Gaza; destroying Hamas,
killing its military leadership, and freeing the hostages.
In addition, Israel is beginning to admit that despite all
its firepower and heavy armor, it is incurring unusually heavy casualties—it
admits that more than 100 soldiers have been killed and more than 5000 injured,
some in serious conditions. Hamas says the number of Israeli dead is much
higher. Israel also says that despite the heavy bombing Hamas’ military
abilities remain intact. Until Monday, Hamas was still
firing rockets towards Tel Aviv and southern Israel.
Fearing that the time is running out on his war on Gaza, he is in a position to force Hezbollah into a wider confrontation—thus dragging the US, and possibly Iran, into a regional war.
Israelis and their apologists are saying that
Israel islosing the public relations war. Millions around the world continue to march
demanding a ceasefire and putting additional pressure on their governments. In
a precedent, the draft resolution, calling for a ceasefire that the US vetoed
last Friday was co-sponsored by over 100 countries. The US is becoming isolated
for being the only country supporting the continuation of Israel’s war.
Expansion of the war
as a distraction
The escalation of hostilities along the northern borders of
Israel, and the
Israeli threat to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River can
only mean war. Despite US blind support and threats, Hezbollah, now in full
control of Lebanon’s political fate, will not hesitate to defend the current
status quo in southern Lebanon.
This is a complex geopolitical territory for all. Neither
Iran nor the US wants to see an expansion of the war for different reasons. But
for
Netanyahu and his war cohorts, the perspective is different—and dangerous.
A sudden end of the war on Gaza will mean defeat for Israel and will have
far-fetched repercussions for the country, but most of all for Netanyahu. The
circumstances surrounding what really happened on 7 October are vague. An
investigation into this will bring down many heads; foremost of which
will be Netanyahu’s.
Hezbollah no longer acts as a non-state actor. It must
consider its gains in Lebanon and its alliance with Iran. It does not seek a
2006 version of a war with Israel, even though it has much more firepower than
before. Those who would want to expand the war and draw in the big power are
the extremists in the Israeli political scene.
Netanyahu, who has sealed the fate of the Israeli hostages by ending the truce with Hamas, is looking for his
own personal interests. Fearing that the time is running out on his war on
Gaza, he is in a position to force Hezbollah into a wider confrontation—thus
dragging the US, and possibly Iran, into a regional war.
The Biden administration must draw the line here. Hamas is
unlikely to be destroyed completely even if the war drags on for a few more
months. Hostage families are already putting pressure on the war Cabinet saying
that this has become an unnecessary war.
Netanyahu is reaching the end of the
tether. A war with Hezbollah will be catastrophic for all parties. The only
immediate exit is to
bring Netanyahu’s government down.
That may not end the
humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. It
will present a scenario for the day after, but it will also provide all
stakeholders a way out of a conundrum, which unless addressed could drag the
region into a regional war.
Osama Sharif is a
journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
Disclaimer:
Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Jordan News' point of view.
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