As many pundits expected, Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a historic
third term as he overcame his opponent in Turkey's presidential runoff on
Sunday. After a tough first round, his triumph is being celebrated by his
supporters, both at home and aboard, but at 69, the populist Islamist leader,
who ruled for two decades, has more to offer and contend with as he begins a
five-year term.
اضافة اعلان
His opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, failed to play his cards
right in the last round. Xenophobic rhetoric, primarily against more than 3.5
million Syrians, may have backfired and limited his chances. At least 200,000
Syrians now have Turkish nationality, and for the business sector, their
contribution to the economy is important. By 2020, it is estimated that Syrians
had invested more than $500 million in capital into the country by establishing
commercial activities, especially SMEs.
Kilicdaroglu’s fealty to the West did not work for him
either, seeing as his opponent is admired for his maverick nature when dealing
with what many Turks see as a patronizing and pretentious Europe. Still, Kilicdaroglu
got more than 47 percent of the votes, which means that millions of voters
turned their back on the incumbent.
One challenge facing Erdogan at home is dealing with
Turkey’s 14 million Kurds, who make up 18 percent of the population. The issue
of Kurdish rights has been central in the latest elections, and it was
interesting that pro-Kurdish parties voted for his rival. Will Erdogan, who
lifted linguistic and cultural restrictions on the community, be in the mood
for revenge?
It is not a secret that most leaders in Europe and the US would have liked to see the demise of Erdogan, but not for the obvious reasons. … Erdogan is hated because of his politics; under him, Turkey has become an admired economic power and a regional and geopolitical player with controversial ties and alliances.
The Turkish elections got much international media coverage,
especially in the West, simply because the poll's outcome would have decided
where this important country, with vast influence across the Middle East and
Central Asia, would look like in the coming years.
It is not a secret that most leaders in Europe and the US
would have liked to see the demise of Erdogan, but not for the obvious reasons.
It is not because of his brand of political Islam, his authoritarian nature, or
the unsavory way he deals with his critics. Erdogan is hated because of his
politics; under him, Turkey has become an admired economic power and a regional
and geopolitical player with controversial ties and alliances. As a founding
member of NATO, Erdogan raised eyebrows because of his special relations with
Russia’s Vladimir Putin, especially over Syria and Ukraine. Ankara is yet to
give the green line for Sweden’s admittance to the North Atlantic military
alliance.
For the man who embraced the “zero problems with neighbors”
philosophy early on, Erdogan soon steered away from that path to make trouble
in northern Syria, Iraq’s Kurdistan, Armenia, Libya, Egypt, and Israel. He
later shifted again, at least on Syria, Israel, and Egypt, and is now showing a
more pragmatic approach, especially towards Gulf countries. His alliance with
Moscow is also paying off as he tries to make his country a global hub for
liquid gas distribution. The amazing thing is that despite his closeness to
Russia and Iran, he has managed to keep relations with the US alive despite
periods of tension.
Erdogan also has a complex relationship with Iran. While the
two have cooperated in trade and infrastructure development, tensions over
their differing views on Syria have surfaced.
With this latest victory, Erdogan will likely continue signature policies such as cracking down on opposition figures, jailing journalists, and suppressing freedom of speech, which could strain Turkey's relations with Western democracies. But even then, he has become a crucial geopolitical player, meaning neither the US nor Europe can afford to confront him head-on.
But one thing is for sure: he will not turn against his
friend in the Kremlin any time soon. It would be interesting to see if he will
be willing to change course on Syria and makeup with now rehabilitated — at
least within the Arab League — President Assad. He is expected to push for a
final reconciliation with Egypt’s Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi. He has already
distanced himself from Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood leadership in exile, but
Ankara’s backing of the Islamists in Libya remains an issue.
In fact, despite showing signs of adopting a more moderate
line, Erdogan’s conservative Islamist politics continue to attract supporters
and loyalists from outside Turkey as well. His victory was celebrated in
Libya’s Tripoli and Gaza City with much fanfare.
But all is not well with Turkey’s Arab neighbors. Aside from
Erdogan’s support of anti-regime rebel groups in Syria, relations with Baghdad
are not good either. Turkey has made several incursions into Iraqi territory,
and its ambitious policy to build several dams across the Euphrates and other
tributaries has created an environmental catastrophe for Iraq and many parts of
Syria. As an Islamist, Erdogan is not perceived as charitable to his Muslim
neighbors.
In fact, Erdogan is a strict nationalist with bizarre
ambitions to resurrect the glories of the rump Ottoman Sultanate. It is
important to see the world from his perspective to begin to understand him.
This probably explains his tendency to punish his critics and his slighting of
democratic principles. Democracy is good only if it fulfills its goals, and
that is why Turkey, under him, has a dismal human rights record.
With this latest victory, Erdogan will likely continue
signature policies such as cracking down on opposition figures, jailing
journalists, and suppressing freedom of speech, which could strain Turkey's
relations with Western democracies. But even then, he has become a crucial
geopolitical player, meaning neither the US nor Europe can afford to confront
him head-on.
Domestically, Erdogan has to reckon with the fact that
almost half the voters turned against him. A polarized country with a deepening
economic crisis will not be easy to rule. But again, what matters for the rest
of the world is how Erdogan’s foreign policy will look and if it is likely to
change.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator
based in Amman.
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