Predictions are part of most human activity fields, and high-tech is
no exception. Whether extrapolating from statistics and numbers, or based
simply on opinions expressed by professionals, predicting is interesting in the
best case, and simply entertaining in the worst. Trying to foresee what may
happen in the fast-paced digital world over the coming few years is a special
game altogether, for many a reason.
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It is special because, on the one hand, virtually
everything we can imagine can possibly happen, as the last 20 years or so have
shown us, while on the other, not all innovations are here to stay, some being
short lived.
Whereas long-term predictions may be difficult to
make, and remain a matter of personal judgment
regardless of how expert and knowledgeable one may be in a domain, one
could perhaps reasonably try to anticipate developments until 2030, a mere
eight years from now, at least regarding some aspects of technology, an
exhaustive compilation being impossible.
According to techtarget.com, 6G Wi-Fi networking is
expected to launch commercially by 2030. By being significantly faster that 5G,
it will allow better and more efficient threat detection and large-scale health
monitoring, among other features. Increased speed does not mean only that one
can do things faster; it also opens new horizons and offers new possibilities.
Ultrafast wireless may well replace wired networking and modify the entire current
infrastructure of networks.
The fastest current 5G Wi-fi networking is not
available in all countries. In the world, the US, China, the Philippines and
South Korea are in the lead, whereas Saudi Arabia is the only Arab country
providing its citizens with 5G.
Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) are
among the technologies that will continue to evolve and will become common.
Remote work, as we have seen it exaggeratedly boosted by the corona epidemic,
will stabilize at some point in the near future, but will most likely become
very common – there is no going back and ignoring this aspect of communication,
be it for business or for personal use.
Virtual computer
servers that let you rent and use servers in the cloud, represented chiefly but
not only by AWS and Amazon Web Services, are slowly but surely replacing
actual, physical servers in small- and medium-size companies. A point will be
reached, soon, when virtual servers will become the norm, as surely as we use
smartphones and Google search today. A significant aspect of this change, one
that concerns human resources, is that shifting to virtual servers will force
IT departments of businesses to restructure, which is no minor transformation.
Microchips are the core of computers and smart digital
devices like smartphones, advanced medical equipment, future cars and home
appliances. The design and manufacturing of microchips remains limited to very
few countries: Taiwan, South Korea and China.
The US manufactures chips, but, in President Joe Biden’s
words, published on January 26 in the New York Times, “today we barely produce
10 percent of the computer chips, despite being the leader in chip design and
research. And we don’t have the ability to make the most advanced chips now —
right now. But today, 75 percent of production takes place in East Asia”.
In the late 1950s, some pundits believed that computer technology was nothing but a passing fad and that it would not last more than five to 10 years before disappearing for good. Others, aware of how fast technology was evolving and convinced that it was here to stay, said that future modern computer models will be much smaller and lighter, weighing less than five tons!
Given the critical, strategic, global importance of
microchips, it is only reasonable to predict the preponderant role their
manufacturing will play in the world’s power game and balance.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already here. Its
growing role can be taken as a certainty, at least over the coming 10 years.
Some fear abusive or erroneous usage of AI, given that it would allow machines
and software to take control and make decisions, while others are betting on
its power and on the fact that it will radically transform our lives for the
better.
If the future of virtual currencies is uncertain,
for some analysts at least, Blockchain technology is a safe and secured method
of processing transaction over networks, is a sound reality, and is expected to
stay. It is a “technology for storing and transmitting information, in the form
of a database, which has the particularity of being shared simultaneously by
all its users, does not depend on any central body, and has the advantage of
being fast and secure. The scope of application is wide and includes
insurance, logistics, energy, industry, health, etc.,” (Definition translated
from French, from economie.gouv.fr).
Computer-aided language translation is another field
that will develop and continue to grow. Already available at different levels,
translation software still requires a human being, a writer, not only to
proofread the text generated by the application, but also to adjust grammar and
syntax, to improve style and other aspects of the automatically translated
work. In the end, it is a precious time saver, compared to traditional methods
by which the translator must type every word and figure out every terminology.
On the lighter side, here are two funny predictions
from days past that nicely illustrate how hard it is to come up with accurate
expectations over the long term. In the late 1950s, some pundits believed that
computer technology was nothing but a passing fad and that it would not last
more than five to 10 years before disappearing for good. Others, aware of how
fast technology was evolving and convinced that it was here to stay, said that
future modern computer models will be much smaller and lighter, weighing less
than five tons!
According to McKinsey & Co, the reference
American management consulting firm, as quoted by weforum.com: “We’ll
experience more technological progress in the coming decade than we did in the
preceding 100 years put together.”
All this, of course, barring unforeseen major events
like more wars or epidemics.
The writer is a
computer engineer and a classically trained pianist and guitarist. He has been
regularly writing IT articles, reviewing music albums, and covering concerts
for more than 30 years.
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