PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) issued, in February 2017 – before the
pandemic and the 50-day-old now war on Ukraine – a report on the economy of the
world, predicting that the world’s GDP would grow by 130 percent during the period
2016-2050. Moreover, it predicted that China’s share, it being the biggest
world economy, will be 20 percent, followed by India, US and the EU, commanding
only 9 percent of the world’s GDP.
اضافة اعلان
The geo-economic
map of the world will tilt, making the route between the Pacific and Indian
oceans to the Atlantic Ocean accessible through the Middle East. Ships will
have to sail the Arabian Sea to the Red Sea via Bab-el-Mandeb straight, and,
together with those coming from Central Asia, go through the Red Sea to the
Suez Canal, to the Mediterranean, to Gibraltar, ending in the Atlantic Ocean,
in Western Africa and the entire American continent.
Later, PwC
monitored the effects of both the coronavirus and the Ukrainian war, but did
not alter the main predictions of their 2017 report. Yet, they made, in March
2022, two important observations.
One tackled with
the ability of single countries to cope with page-turning events like the
pandemic and the Ukraine war. They found that countries need better resiliency
and adaptability to disrupting major economic indicators, such as inflation,
interruption of the global supply chain and the threat of stagnation.
The other talked
about the tendency of many countries to reposition themselves politically and
economically with new allies while preferably keeping their traditional
relations with their usual allies intact.
Despite this profile of the changing world order, I believe Arab countries may be availed an opportunity to improve their bargaining positions and help resolve their long unresolved crises in Yemen, Libya, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine.
The changing
profile of allies and the superpowers’ quest to maintain and expand their zones
of influence is not making it easy for smaller and poorer countries to make
comfortable choices.
Despite this
profile of the changing world order, I believe Arab countries may be availed an
opportunity to improve their bargaining positions and help resolve their long
unresolved crises in Yemen, Libya, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. All
these problems (with Libya as an exception) can be resolved by reaching serious
solutions with Iran and Israel.
For this
optimistic scenario to materialize, the Arab countries (especially those in the
GCC) should harness the leverage they have gained by higher oil and gas prices.
They would be well advised to bargain using their predicted geo-strategic
importance in the future world. If they can enlist Egypt and Jordan to work
with them on Syria and Iraq, the resultant alliance would stand equal to both
post-nuclear deal Iran and Israel.
A commanding
position like this, if supported by Turkey and a new Pakistan, would make the
Arab world a formidable force to reckon with.
No longer should
we continue to be the meek and weak allies to anybody. Our problems have the
opportunity to come to a positive end.
The writer is an economist, and has held several
ministerial posts, including former deputy prime minister and former chief of
the Royal Court.
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