As the fighting in
Ukraine drags on, another conflict is taking shape elsewhere on Russia’s
periphery. This borderless conflict is aimed at destabilizing the Baltic states
of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, but can and likely will expand to engulf
others.
اضافة اعلان
Last month, Lithuanian government and public service
web portals were hit by a sustained cyberattack from Russian hackers. The
attack was a response to Lithuanian enforcement of a EU sanctions package on
goods traveling to and from Kaliningrad, a Russian territory located between
Lithuania and Poland. In taking responsibility for the attack, Russian hackers
promised that more would be forthcoming.
“The attack will continue until Lithuania lifts the
blockade,” a spokesperson for the group told Reuters.
“We have demolished 1,652 web resources. And that is
just so far.”
The Baltic states have been on the frontlines of
cyber warfare for decades. As the first countries to establish independence
from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, they have remained decidedly
anti-Russian in their posture and thus have borne the brunt of Russia’s
increasingly sophisticated cyber offensive.
This uneasy situation boiled over in the mid-2000s
with a series of aggressive Russian cyberattacks. In 2007, the Estonian
parliament, several ministries, media institutions, and banks suffered a series
of severe cyberattacks over the country’s stance on relocating a Soviet-era
monument in the capital Tallinn. Officials in the Baltics viewed the attack as
a precursor to an offensive that could knock out power grids and make the
country essentially ungovernable.
The severity of the offensive, which lasted for 22
days, forced Estonia to set up measures to insulate the country from digital
warfare. The approach was simple: put as many government services and systems
on private, secure networks and beef up cyber security.
Eventually, Estonia moved citizen services and the
essential functions of the government to a blockchain, becoming the first
country in the world to use the technology to protect its data. In doing so,
Estonia created a country that could be governed virtually from anywhere in the
world. In the advent of a Russian invasion or crippling cyberattack on
essential services, the political leadership could flee the country and run it
from another location.
Such a model would not work in every country. Still,
given their small sizes and large information technology sectors, the Baltic
states offer a blueprint for how cyber security systems can be built to
withstand the vulnerabilities of our technological age. As more small countries
with nimble legislative environments embrace economic systems fueled by
intellectual capital, the quality of their cyber security systems will define
which countries thrive in the next world order.
The silver lining of this defensive posture is that
Baltic citizens live in digital republics, as The New Yorker once described
Estonia. By investing in complex digital infrastructure, the Estonian
government enables citizens and residents to conduct most of their lives
online. They can sign and access virtually all government services digitally
using their unique Estonian digital identity, a system that was established in
2002.
The future of warfare is digital because the future of society is digital.
In 2014, the country even launched the world’s first
e-Residency program with the goal of 10 million e-residents by 2025. Although
only 85,000 people have become e-residents so far, the program has allowed
entrepreneurs worldwide to set up more than 19,000 digital businesses without
needing to be physically present. From freelancers to established entrepreneurs
and digital nomads, Estonia’s e-Residency has made it possible to operate an
online EU-registered company from anywhere.
The future of warfare is digital because the future
of society is digital. Renewed hostilities between the Baltic states and Russia
have become critical laboratories to evaluate where the trend lines of cyber
conflict are heading. Countries in the Middle East, such as the United Arab
Emirates and Israel, are paying particular attention to how the shifting
contours of cyber warfare and defense strategies unfold.
The reason is two-fold. Over the past decade, the
UAE has invested substantial resources in following Estonia’s model as a
digital republic. From the introduction of blockchain resources at the
governmental level to plans to create similar e-residency programs, there is an
indelible link connecting the UAE to the Baltics. In recent months, Emirati
officials also discussed the need to build better cyber security infrastructure
to safeguard the nation’s knowledge economy.
Many analysts agree that if conflict were to break
out between the Gulf states and Iran, it would feature serious cyberattacks
from both sides. Israel and Iran have already been trading cyber strikes, and
some fear these attacks could escalate beyond military infrastructure and
target vital civilian targets.
Whatever happens, cyberattacks will define the
future of conflict, and the steps taken by the Baltic states to defend against
Russian aggression should be watched closely for clues on how that future will
play out.
Joseph Dana is the former senior editor of Exponential View, a weekly newsletter about
technology and its impact on society. He was also the editor-in-chief of
emerge85, a lab exploring change in emerging markets and its global impact.
Syndication Bureau.
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