The Disarmament Scenario

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Maher Abu Tair

Maher Abu Tair

The recurring headline across the region is disarmament. The common factor behind the calls for disarmament is Israel, while the responses to this demand vary from one location to another.اضافة اعلان

In the Gaza Strip, Israel is demanding the disarmament of Palestinian factions. It previously spoke of removing heavy weapons, but now it is calling for the removal of light weapons, including pistols and rifles.

Israel is using this demand to create a media narrative portraying the resistance as defeated to Palestinians and presenting it to Israelis as evidence of victory.

Since completely disarming these groups is technically impossible, Israel uses the demand as a pretext to continue its crimes against civilians and innocent people in Gaza.

Meanwhile, security forces in the West Bank are undertaking the disarmament of various groups, and even the weapons held by members of the Palestinian Authority may one day be removed in the same manner as the West Bank enters a new phase under the broader plan.

In Iraq, amid internal Iraqi pressure as well as pressure from the United States and Israel, there are calls for disarmament, with Iraqi armed groups being given a deadline to hand over their weapons to the state by next month.

The issue of weapons in Iraq is more complicated, as they also reflect alignment in a regional conflict and support for Iran.

The weapons are diverse and include missiles and drones, while numerous storage facilities are located in western Iraq, as well as in areas of Baghdad and southern Iraq. Iraqi Kurds are also pushing for disarmament, saying they have come under attacks from within Iraq and from Iran.

In Lebanon, the same scenario is being repeated. Israel is not limiting its attacks to southern Lebanon, Beirut’s southern suburbs, or other cities; it is openly calling for Hezbollah to disarm and hand over its weapons to the Lebanese Army.

All US contacts with Lebanon place this demand at the forefront: abandoning the military capabilities maintained by any armed organization.

Israel continues to target weapons depots and tunnels, just as it does in Gaza.

The stated aim here is to prevent any threats related to Israel’s occupation and military structure. This is evident from the fact that calls for disarmament in Lebanon do not extend to parties and groups opposed to Hezbollah.

Such weapons are largely ignored, and may even be supported and reinforced.
The same scenario will be repeated at certain stages in Yemen and Syria. It is also worth recalling that following the fall of the previous Syrian regime, Israel struck Syrian weapons depots and military installations.

Even in Iran, there are demands for disarmament, particularly regarding its nuclear capabilities, in addition to the missile program.

Washington is targeting manufacturing facilities and raw materials, seeking to see Iran disarmed to varying degrees because of concerns over the possibility of continued or temporary attacks, depending on the nature of events and developments.

The conclusion here is that Israel wants the entire region to be disarmed, while no one is asking about its own stockpiles of various types of weapons. The regional disarmament plan serves a fundamental Israeli objective: eliminating potential threats across the region.

But the more important question concerns Israel’s actual ability to impose this scenario on all the countries and peoples of the region. That remains open to debate and assessment.

It should also be noted that disarmament does not necessarily mean that these groups will never rearm in the future.

Likewise, the stage following the disarmament of armed organizations could mark the beginning of plans aimed at weakening the region’s armies, particularly following models seen in Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt, and other countries.

The disarmament of armed organizations is merely a prelude to a later stage targeting the armies of the region, with the ultimate goal of transforming the Arab and Muslim world into nothing more than a region that is safe for Israel.