The government’s long-awaited Economic Modernization Vision was launched
last week with much fanfare and media visibility. The plan will reportedly be
implemented in three phases over the next decade and includes hundreds of
initiatives in various sectors that focus on sustainable economic growth and
job creation. Its proponents say it has enormous potential to transform the
country, even if it is only partially realized. Skeptics, on the other hand,
say that it is un-implementable, just like previous efforts. This begs the
question: how unique is this plan, and what are its prospects for success?
اضافة اعلان
There are indeed several notable differences than
there are similarities between this and previous efforts that are worth noting.
To begin, this effort comes at a unique time for
Jordan, given the changing national, regional, and global developments forcing
a change in the country’s otherwise change-averse outlook. On the regional and
global fronts, the plan may be driven by the growing recognition — and concern
— that financial assistance from regional and international partners will not
be as forthcoming moving forward as it once was. This is because some of
Jordan’s partners are being politically and economically challenged by
competitors unprecedentedly, such that they may no longer be willing or able to
extend the same level of support they once did.
Alternately, other partners appear to be moving away
from the utility of financial assistance as a primary tool of their foreign
policy, often referred to as checkbook diplomacy. These changes may be
prompting decision-makers to seriously question the reliability of financial
assistance in coming years and recognize the need for the Economic
Modernization Vision. And one that evolves the state’s role instead of
primarily redistributing foreign sources of income and, instead, develops and
expands domestic sources of income.
On the national front, the plan may also be driven
by a recognition from Jordan’s private sector that they can no longer afford to
sit on the sidelines while reaping profits, paying taxes, and criticizing from
a distance. The role of the private sector in policymaking is changing
everywhere. Private enterprises are increasingly shaping politics and
governance, not only because they are vested stakeholders but also because they
recognize that the current situation may be unsustainable or untenable, risking
their well-being and pockets. Previous iterations of Jordan’s planning efforts
never coincided with such significant changes in the country’s outlook.
Another key difference between this effort compared
to previous ones is that it is very much home-grown. Those involved in its
development have a very strong sense of ownership over it. Previous national
efforts (regional ones, too) tended to utilize foreign expertise, either due to
capacity constraints, political motivations, or even downright laziness. This
resulted in a mismatch of findings and realities on the one hand and a lack of
ownership on the other.
Another key difference between this effort compared to previous ones is that it is very much home-grown. Those involved in its development have a very strong sense of ownership over it.
Consultants parachuted into our region to lead or
assist in the development of national plans rarely hit the mark, and national
stakeholders who are left with the responsibility to implement their plans
understandably have no sense of ownership over them. Notwithstanding the misplaced
criticisms that the Economic Modernization Vision was developed by Jordanian
elites who might be out of touch with the broader population, the plan is
definitely locally-driven, and there is a strong sense of ownership over it.
Furthermore, it has involved an impressive range of experts from
multidisciplinary backgrounds, led by the Jordan Strategy Forum, which has been
a strong convener of Jordanian stakeholders.
For all its
differences listed above, the Economic Modernization Vision is similar in one
notable way to previous efforts. It excludes the security community. A common
and regular feature of decision-making in the country has been the stove-piping
between security and non-security communities and the exclusion of one or the
other in charting a course for the country’s future. Yet, the country’s current
and increasing cross-sectoral risks would require a whole government approach
to address in the future and can only be mitigated through genuine partnerships
between the two. At the end of the day, Jordan’s security communities will be
left to bear some of the responsibility of implementing any development plan or
at least dealing with some of its unexpected repercussions, so they probably
should have been at the table during its formulation.
In terms of the prospects for success, a healthy
dose of skepticism is always important for policymaking. It helps ensure that
decision-making is at its best and that decision-makers can be held accountable
by public scrutiny. On the other hand, the prevailing culture of defeatism that
has been plaguing the discourse has been largely counterproductive to
governance.
The plan is ambitious, yes. But, it also lacks
critical details that the general public has yet to see. In either case, it
should be given its best chance to succeed.
The writer is
founder and CEO of Ambit Advisory.
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