Some authors and analysts have shared
concerns that anger over the genocide in Gaza may result in increased
radicalization. This spurious conclusion is usually off-base by conflating
frustration with the United States and criticism of Israel as radical sentiments.
These are political sentiments. That said, in corners on the internet -
not dark or hidden - actual radicalization still continues. These two circles -
angry street protestors with radical elements - cannot be confused. First, we
do a disservice to actual protestors with their hearts torn over what is
happening in Gaza. Second, such confusion provides cover for the real
radicalization that is occurring.
اضافة اعلان
Unemployed. Disenfranchised. Young. Poor. Operating in hubs,
epicenters and closed groups; Stuck in what some researchers called “waithood”;
these youth were unable to find employment, unable to get married, and unable
to launch from the home of their parents. They were without political
representation and without social mobility. This is how we previously thought
of youth vulnerable to radicalization.
Several things have changed since then. First, radical groups
have learned and adapted. There is a new generation of leadership. Second,
social media has drastically changed recruitment possibilities. Now we’re
looking at something called self-radicalization. This is usually done at the
receiving end of a Telegram channel or YouTube video or through social media
groups. So who are these new recruits? How do we describe them, and how do they
access the information in the recruiting method that eventually draws them into
terrorist activities?
Three Things You Should Know:
They Are Young. Those now vulnerable to radicalization are young - very
young. Fourteen, fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen. These are young people who
are not stuck in “waithood”. Marriage, university, and employment are not on
their immediate horizon. Their life goals have not been postponed or spoiled
for them because of the economy. In fact, many come from affluent families.
These are teenagers dealing with the dramas of school, parents, and hormones.
Their age also means that legally, these are juveniles. Psychologically, their
profiles and profiling is different. They are not angry about their place in
society. They have not yet even found a place in society. But they’re
impressionable and very emotional and act on impulse. Simply put, their
prefrontal cortexes are not fully developed yet. Which
makes them into a perfect target for organizations looking
to spread chaos rather than recruit cadres.
They Are Online. Second, these youth are hyper connected. Internet cafes are no
longer relevant to recruiting. Youth have devices and smart phones - even
smart watches. They spend hours daily online as members of Telegram channels.
They belong to Facebook groups, follow Instagram channels, use VPNs to access
TikTok, and have numerous messaging apps. Being online also means they are not
easily detectable - parents can no longer see a “shift” in social circles, new
places they might hang out, or any other usual red flags - they are online just
like their peers. They feel comfortable online because that is their home,
essentially. It's also their greatest source of information. These young
people have not attended secret training camps. (Remember the old Al Qaeda training
videos we would see on the evening
news - trainees using the monkey bars and jumping over tires? That’s not
reality anymore. There is no physical training.) These Telegram channels are
not that difficult to find and not only promote anger, resentment, and revenge
but also provide very clear instructions on how to carry out actions. These
actions come from a surprising number of places.
For example, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drones were
a frequent method of attack by Russia. Some of these drones misfired or crashed
or otherwise did not achieve their objective. Ukrainians finding them were able
to repair them and then use them for counter attacks in resistance to the
invasion. They even uploaded small videos with instructions of how to repair
drones and use them. These videos taught resistance to tUkrainians against
Russia, but were also dubbed or subtitled into Arabic and spread on these
Telegram channels to teach methods of “resistance”.
How did they get there? A recent illustrative incident was a
young boy we will call Wael who was from an affluent family, a straight A
student, studying for his Tawjihi. He enjoyed some anasheed videos and liked them. The
channel moderator wrote to him, thanking him for the like, and encouraged him
to share the videos. A conversational relationship developed between a young
user and this channel. The channel offered to teach him how to upload and edit
videos, in other words how to be a content creator. These were innocent videos
that taught virtue and Islamic morals - a very innocent and easy task.
Eventually he was given content to upload and share. The content gradually
became more radical. In less than 4 months, Wael started getting more dangerous
and malicious tasks - ones that eventually put him on a watch list and ended up
with him getting caught.
They are Invisible. These young people are invisible. The stereotypes and
clichés of how radicalized youth looked a decade or two ago do not hold up any
longer. They are no longer in centers of communication and teaching, mosques or
gatherings. In fact, many of them are encouraged not to go. They aren’t
profield in the old ways - these kids are too young to even grow beards. They
are young people encouraged not to change any external features of their life
and instead encouraged to consume their information and digest these
instructions online only. ISIS for example, is not interested in converts it is
interested in tools. These young people are tools. This is a notable difference
from Al-Qaeda who do things “by the book” - there's a hierarchical
structure, organization and - most bureaucratically- documentation. Al Qaeda
operatives use fatwas as justifications for attacks.
ISIS, on the other hand, does not rely on the issuance of fatwas; they aim to
inspire individuals to carry out acts. Inspiring terror doesn’t require
buildings or leaders or groups - just easily susceptible and emotional invisible
individuals online.
My Take:
It cannot be repeated enough - this is not a Jordan problem or a
Jordanian trend. This is an international shift seen across many countries.
Jordan, as usual, finds itself on the frontline. Jordan is known for its
excellent counter terrorism operations, and results and an increase in
radicalization - whether self radicalization or active recruitment - always
follows major regional events like the bloodshed in Syria, the invasion of
Iraq, or most recently the war on Gaza. We now have increasing influence of online
media along with history’s first livestreamed genocide. The players and the
rules of the game are changing.
The war on Gaza, coupled with the new online radicalization has
opened an opportunity for three main groups: ISIS, Al Qaeda, and Iranian
proxies or the “axis of resistance”. ISIS, as I have noted above, is not
interested in “soldiers” but tools, because ISIS’s goal is chaos and violence.
It does not invest in long term conversions. It does not require travel or
joining the ranks. All they need is the anger and naiveté of young
people.
Al Qaeda, are using this moment as an opportunity to “rebrand”
and breathe some life into their decaying structure. In ISIS’s most active
years between 2013- 2017 many of the younger generation split from Al Qaeda to
join in with ISIS. This caused Al Qaeda to lose a lot of its “appeal” and they
were clearly failing in their outreach. This is changing with Gaza. We
see Al Qaeda’s media extending support to Hamas, unlike ISIS, and is using the
sympathies among the younger generation to recruit.
Finally, Iran and Iranian proxies are using this moment to
create and widen divisions, - specifically the trust of citizens towards their
state - alongside creating an opening for their proxies and ideologies to find
a footing in previously very resilient societies.
Another overlooked factor is the COVID-19 pandemic and the
way it changed the younger generation. A lot of these young people have
developed complete lives online - they’re never disconnected. Groups like ISIS
have adapted to this new reality and are expanding their reach online. As in
the story of Wael, ISIS monitors comments and reactions and builds its outreach
based on that. Online, these groups have access to their youth audience 24/7 in
school, at home, with friends. Young people are carrying their “handler” in
their pockets. There is no need to attend meetings, religious classes, or any
other venue that has traditionally been used by radical organizations. In fact,
the youth are actually discouraged from attending any religious seminars or
talks so as to avoid exposure to different, more moderate, narratives of
religion that these groups have adopted.
By examining several radical Telegram channels that promote
violent narratives and teach their subscribers how to reassemble commercial
drones to convert them into suicide drones, I saw how to make a simple
explosive device (costing less than 70 dollars) and which personal firearms are
most “effective”. These are not closed groups or channels that are hidden
deeply in the cellars and corners of the Internet. I was able to access all the
above in less than a week. It is chilling to contemplate what will be discovered
in the coming weeks when further examining the new trends of
radicalization.
All of the above is to say we are,
Jordan, are yet again at the forefront of another global trend. While we have
spent years optimizing deradicalization programs, we modeled all of them based
on certain age demographics and “push and pull factors” that are now outdated.
The fact that the younger, more emotional and most irrational are the target
audience of radical narratives means that our deradicalization efforts must
evolve as well, and we must have a national strategy, including educating
parents about online harm and radicalization, that can combat this new
phenomena. We also need to realize that Gaza is not just about Palestine and
human rights - it is a multifaceted issue with Jordan sounding the alarm about
its spillover effects. Is anyone listening?
Katrina Sammour was first published on Full Spectrum Jordan, a weekly newsletter on SubStack.
Disclaimer:
Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Jordan News' point of view.
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