Last week, His Majesty
King Abdullah participated in the fourth Jordanian-Iraqi-Egyptian
trilateral summit
in Baghdad, hosted by Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi and attended by Egyptian
President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi. The prospects for growing cooperation between the
three countries in general, and Jordan and Iraq in particular, have been gaining
momentum since the first summit in 2019, and perhaps have never been stronger.
اضافة اعلان
Both Jordan and Egypt have been long
supporters of policies that preserve Iraq’s territory and sovereignty. This
stems from an interest by both countries in restoring Iraq as the strategic
security and economic partner that it once was. By contrast, the interests of several
other countries in the region and beyond has been to keep Iraq fragmented and
weak so as to prevent it from ever posing a threat again in the future as it
did previously.
As Jordan seeks to reestablish its
relationship with Iraq, there are several obstacles and barriers to consider.
Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, is the misperception that improved
relations between Jordan and Iraq would come at the expense of either country’s
existing relations with other countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iran
respectively. This is largely overblown; the politics of axis that once characterized
the region in the previous century, where alliances were continuously shifting and
mutually exclusive to others, no longer apply to today’s region, where
countries can simultaneously pursue multiple alliances, even when appearing contradictory.
Secondly, there is a need for
Iraq’s partners, including Jordan, to avoid as much as possible the practice of
viewing their relations with Iraq exclusively through the prism of their own
relations with Iran. This is especially important given that Iraq’s current
leader is pursuing a nationalist agenda and does not exhibit the sectarian
tendencies of his predecessors. It seems that any support for Iraq that can
contribute to his tenure will serve to strengthen the country’s national
identity, strengthen its institutions, and promote an inclusive political
process. This will limit external meddling in Iraq and help further stability
in the region at large.
Aside from the possibility of
expanding trade and investment, and the impact this could have on Jordan’s
ailing economy, two specific project proposals could have a transformative impact,
namely expanding religious tourism in Jordan for Iraqi Shiites and the construction
of an oil pipeline from Basra to Egypt through Jordan.
On the former proposal, Jordan
has long hesitated to welcome Iraqi pilgrims to the country, broadly citing security
concerns.
Many observers interpret these concerns to mean that opening pilgrimage
traffic would facilitate covert Iranian activities in the country. While not
entirely unfounded, it is believed that this is a risk that can be largely
mitigated by improved regulation and security governance instead of a blanket
ban. An alternative interpretation suggests it is the actual safety of the
pilgrims and the potential that they would be targeted by terrorist groups that
is a concern — a low and far-fetched likelihood.
In a region with a long and
relatively sophisticated tradition of messaging and symbolism, His Majesty’s
visits to Shiite shrines in Jordan a day prior to his participation in the summit
should be interpreted as a signal that an opening could be imminent. The
proposal would be a boon for Jordan’s tourism sector, which has suffered
considerably during COVID-19, and would unlock an entirely new form of
religious tourism in the country. It would also be an important victory for
Iraq’s current leadership, and help build bridges for Iraq’s Shiites with their
Arab neighbors in Jordan.
The latter proposal, a pipeline
bringing Iraqi oil to European markets and beyond, is not necessarily new and dates
back to the Iraq-Iran war, when discussions were being held to explore the
possibility of shipping Iraqi oil to international markets through the port of
Aqaba. The project in its renewed format, transiting through Aqaba and terminating
in Egypt, is potentially a game changer, because it becomes significantly more
feasible, partially due to Egypt’s ability to access international finance and
its already impressive achievements developing its energy sector.
The project would
be strategically valuable for all involved countries, including Jordan, which
could improve its energy security and benefit from transit payments, and for
Iraq, which could find more accessible markets at a lowered risk and cost.
Progress on these projects can be
a litmus test for the new cooperation. It appears that the stars are aligned and the conditions
are ideal for progress, but the truth of the matter is that there are numerous
spoilers seeking to undermine any progress.
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Opinion & Analysis
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