As the Jordanian economy enters the second half of the year, the government’s task appears clearer: maintaining economic and fiscal stability and ensuring that regional developments do not disrupt the reform path on which Jordan has made significant progress.
اضافة اعلان
Without exaggerating the challenges, available indicators confirm that the Jordanian economy continues to move along a stable trajectory, The economic program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is progressing as planned, while the government is simultaneously required to implement the 2026 budget law, control spending and the deficit, and maintain monetary and fiscal stability.
The IMF has confirmed that Jordan’s program remains on track despite the repercussions of the regional war, which temporarily affected tourism, shipping costs, and gas supplies.
Growth projections, although modest, still point to the economy’s ability to achieve growth in 2026, with expectations for growth to return to higher levels in 2027.
However, all these positive developments could face a real test if regional disruptions persist and spill over into energy markets.
This is precisely where the greatest risk to the Jordanian economy lies for the remainder of the year. Rising global oil prices do not only increase the import bill; they also put pressure on transportation, production, electricity, and commodity costs, potentially raising the energy bill for both the economy and the treasury.
Gas poses an even greater risk if its costs rise or supplies are disrupted, given its direct role in electricity generation.
This is the scenario the government must prepare for carefully. A prolonged energy shock could place pressure on public finances, increase the need for compensatory spending, and weaken the ability to meet fiscal reform targets. The IMF has warned that higher oil and gas prices could have tangible effects on growth and inflation.
Therefore, the government’s priority in the coming months should be to manage energy risks before dealing with their consequences: securing alternatives to gas, building safety margins in reserves, controlling energy consumption, and avoiding broad-based subsidies that would place additional pressure on the treasury.
Jordan is so far moving in the right direction, and the government appears capable of dealing with most of the country’s domestic economic challenges,
However, oil and gas are the two variables that cannot be underestimated.
They could be the decisive factors in protecting the stability and reforms achieved so far or in disrupting them if the regional shock develops into a prolonged energy crisis.
