NASA announced that an asteroid named 2024 YR4 could pose a threat to the Moon in December 2032, noting that the risk of it hitting Earth is now considered negligible.
اضافة اعلان
Although estimates indicate only a 4% chance of the asteroid colliding with the Moon, such an impact could produce a massive debris cloud, increasing the number of tiny meteoroids heading toward Earth by a thousand times the normal rate for a few days, potentially endangering satellites and astronauts in orbit.
Two Main Options
A recent NASA study, reported in ScienceAlert, outlined two main strategies if the asteroid’s trajectory toward the Moon becomes confirmed:
Deflection: Slightly altering the asteroid’s orbit to avoid the collision. This would require precise knowledge of the asteroid’s mass, possibly necessitating a reconnaissance mission by 2028.
Destruction: Either by a direct impact with a massive object to break it into smaller pieces or by a nuclear detonation in space at a calculated altitude. Calculations suggest that a one-megaton nuclear bomb could neutralize it, though this approach raises significant political and technical debates.
Tight Time Window
Researchers stress that any defensive mission would need to launch between 2030 and 2032, a relatively short time frame in space exploration terms. NASA has also explored the possibility of redirecting existing missions, like OSIRIS-APEX, toward the asteroid, which would, however, compromise their original objectives.
Between Science and Politics
Even though the likelihood of a Moon impact is low, scientists warn against ignoring the threat. Past experience shows that early intervention is safer and less costly, though the final decision on using available technologies, particularly nuclear options, remains as much a political decision as it is a scientific one.
