Uncertainty loomed over what Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six other key OPEC+ members would decide regarding crude oil production at their Sunday meeting, with analysts noting that an increase in production is also under consideration.
اضافة اعلان
The meeting of the “Voluntary Eight” oil-producing countries comes as oil prices continue to decline amid expectations of an oversupplied market in the coming months.
In recent years, the broader OPEC+ group—comprising the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies—has implemented production cuts totaling around 6 million barrels per day to support prices.
Since April, the Voluntary Eight—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—have shifted policies toward restoring market share and agreeing on a series of production increases. A week ago, analysts predicted that the group would likely maintain current production levels in October.
Oil prices have hovered in a low range of $65–$70 per barrel, down 12% this year, amid production increases from non-OPEC+ producers and muted demand due to tariffs.
According to Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, oil demand is expected to decline in Q4 2025, with seasonal demand trending lower compared to summer months in the Northern Hemisphere. He told AFP that even without increasing production, a supply surplus would gradually push prices down.
Oil Market Oversupply
Since Wednesday, market chatter has suggested that the group might adjust quotas again in October, according to Oli Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank. Leon added that such a move would signal the group’s serious intent to regain market share, even if it drives prices below $60 per barrel.
Arne Loman Rasmussen, analyst at Global Risk Management, noted that OPEC’s own analysis shows room to increase oil production in upcoming quarters, which may have encouraged the alliance to consider reintroducing a second round of voluntary production cuts—referring to the 1.66 million barrels per day cuts agreed in spring 2023.
So far, crude oil prices have held up better than most analysts expected despite production increases, largely due to geopolitical risks supporting prices.
Geopolitical Risks and Oil Markets
Experts are closely monitoring Moscow’s war in Ukraine and developments in U.S.-Russia relations. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, whose mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine failed, recently targeted Russian oil and its buyers.
In August, higher tariffs were imposed on India as punishment for its Russian oil imports. During a meeting with Ukraine allies in Paris, Trump expressed frustration over EU purchases of Russian oil, especially by Hungary and Slovakia, and insisted Europe stop buying Russian oil funding the war. He also called on European countries to pressure China, the largest importer of Russian oil, to curb its support for Moscow.
While restricting Russian exports could create market space for OPEC+ countries, Russia, the world’s second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia, is unlikely to benefit from further quota increases due to its interest in keeping oil prices high to finance the war in Ukraine, according to Loman Rasmussen.
