Oil prices rose on Monday following signs of easing global trade tensions, as the United States reached a trade agreement with the European Union and talks progressed toward extending tariff suspensions with China. These developments helped ease fears that escalating trade disputes could hurt global economic activity and reduce fuel demand.
اضافة اعلان
By 03:36 GMT, Brent crude futures had increased by 20 cents (0.29%) to $68.64 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 15 cents (0.23%) to $65.31 per barrel.
Market analyst Tony Sycamore from IG noted that the U.S.–EU trade framework and potential tariff suspension with China are supporting global markets and oil prices. “With the looming risk of a prolonged trade war, calming down the August tariff deadlines has triggered a positive market response,” he said.
U.S.–EU Trade Deal and China Talks
The U.S.–EU agreement, reached Sunday, imposes 15% tariffs on most EU goods—half the threatened rate—averting a broader trade war between the two major economic powers, who collectively represent nearly one-third of global trade. This has the potential to stabilize oil demand globally.
Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese negotiators were set to meet in Stockholm on Monday, aiming to extend a trade truce ahead of the August 12 deadline that could otherwise reinstate high tariffs.
Oil Prices Rebound After Three-Week Lows
Oil prices had fallen to three-week lows last Friday amid global trade uncertainty and anticipated increases in Venezuelan oil output. Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, is preparing to resume operations in its joint ventures under licensing terms similar to those granted during the Biden administration. This follows expectations that former President Donald Trump, if re-elected, may reauthorize oil-for-services contracts.
Despite Monday’s modest rebound, gains were limited due to speculation that OPEC+ might ease production limits further.
OPEC+ Meeting and Supply Outlook
The OPEC+ Joint Market Monitoring Committee was scheduled to meet Monday at 12:00 GMT. According to four OPEC+ delegates, it is unlikely that the eight core members will propose changes to the current plan to increase output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, although one source noted it was still too early to be certain.
Analysts at ING expect OPEC+ to fully unwind the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary supply cuts by end of September, beginning with at least 280,000 bpd in September alone. However, there remains room for more aggressive increases as the group seeks to regain market share, particularly amid rising summer demand.
JPMorgan analysts reported that global oil demand rose by 600,000 bpd in July compared to the previous year, while global inventories increased by 1.6 million bpd.
Regional Tensions: Houthi Threats Against Israeli Shipping
In the Middle East, tensions escalated as Yemen’s Houthi movement declared on Sunday its intention to target vessels of companies dealing with Israeli ports, regardless of nationality. This marks the start of what they called the fourth phase of military operations against Israel in response to the Gaza conflict.
Despite supply uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and shifting trade dynamics, oil markets remain volatile and sensitive to both macroeconomic and regional developments.
