Amman – A draft of Jordan’s third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) document has reaffirmed the Kingdom’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 31% by 2035, while estimating the investment required to meet its climate commitments at approximately $16.2 billion.
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Details of the draft, obtained by Al Ghad, show that the emissions-reduction target is divided into an unconditional national contribution of 7%, which can be achieved through domestic efforts and resources, and a conditional contribution of 24%, which depends on the availability of international support, including financing, technology and capacity-building.
This distribution reflects the extent to which Jordan’s climate ambitions depend on international assistance. The conditional contribution accounts for nearly three-quarters of the overall emissions-reduction target, placing the provision of financing and the development of investment-ready projects at the heart of the requirements for implementing the document.
The new draft forms part of the development of Jordan’s climate commitments, a process that began with the submission of its first contribution in 2015, followed by an update in 2021, and has now reached the preparation of the third generation during 2025 and 2026. The process focuses on scientific evidence, institutional development, financing readiness and implementation capacity.
Nationally Determined Contributions are climate action plans submitted by countries under the Paris Agreement. They set out national targets and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change, taking into account each country's circumstances and development capabilities.
Updating the Baseline
The draft includes an updated reference baseline for 2035, drawing on newer national datasets, the latest available greenhouse gas inventory and a review of assumptions relating to different economic sectors.
The reference baseline is a scientific estimate of the level of emissions expected in a target year under a specific scenario. Planned reductions are measured against this projected level, rather than necessarily against actual emissions recorded in a previous year.
This methodology is important when interpreting Jordan’s target. The planned 31% reduction by 2035 is calculated against the updated reference scenario for that year. Understanding the projected emissions under this scenario and how they are calculated is therefore essential to determining the expected reduction in actual emissions.
The draft states that the development of the baseline is based on three interconnected components: a greenhouse gas inventory, sectoral data analysis and the construction of the reference scenario for 2035.
Under its climate mitigation component, the draft identifies 41 measures that have undergone technical assessment. These measures cover five main sectors: energy and electricity, transport, industrial processes, waste and wastewater, and agriculture.
Climate mitigation refers to measures designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at their sources or enhance their removal from the atmosphere, thereby limiting their contribution to global warming.
In the energy and electricity sectors, the measures focus on expanding the use of renewable energy sources and improving energy efficiency, helping reduce dependence on high-emission energy sources.
In the transport sector, the proposed measures aim to promote less polluting modes of transportation and reduce emissions from vehicles and transport systems. In industry, the focus is on decarbonising industrial processes.
Managing Emissions
The mitigation portfolio also covers waste and wastewater, with an emphasis on managing methane emissions and improving treatment and management processes. In agriculture, the proposed measures focus on promoting sustainable farming practices.
The draft links climate action with Jordan’s economic and development priorities, particularly energy security, improved air quality, sustainable transport, resource efficiency and attracting green investment.
In this context, it refers to a target included in the Energy Strategy for 2025–2035, which aims to increase the share of renewable energy sources to 40% of electricity generation by 2035.
The draft explains that climate action is aligned with the Economic Modernisation Vision through its expected contribution to strengthening energy supply security, reducing air pollutants, improving resource efficiency and creating investment opportunities in green sectors.
Under its climate adaptation component, the draft identifies six priority sectors for strengthening the Kingdom’s ability to address climate risks. These include water, agriculture and food security, health, biodiversity, urban planning and infrastructure, as well as cultural heritage and tourism.
Water scarcity is identified as one of the foremost risks requiring adaptation measures. These include improving water-use efficiency and protecting water resources to strengthen the sector’s ability to cope with climate pressures.
Strengthening Preparedness
In the health sector, the proposed responses focus on improving preparedness for heat-related risks and the health impacts of climate change, while strengthening healthcare services and their capacity to address these challenges.
In agriculture and food security, the measures focus on climate-smart agriculture, which includes practices and technologies designed to improve productivity and strengthen the ability to adapt to changing climatic conditions while ensuring the sustainable use of natural resources.
The draft also stresses the importance of strengthening the resilience of ecosystems. Meanwhile, measures relating to urban planning and infrastructure focus on incorporating climate risks into planning, design and implementation processes.
The priorities also include protecting heritage and tourism sites exposed to climate risks, reflecting the broad scope of adaptation efforts, which extend beyond natural resources to include cultural and economic assets and essential services.
The draft identifies poverty, livelihoods and social vulnerability as cross-cutting issues across adaptation sectors, highlighting the need to take into account communities and groups most exposed to climate impacts.
It also develops a more detailed framework for measuring progress in adaptation, incorporating 382 indicator entries across sectoral adaptation matrices. These include 59 distinct codes from the Belém Adaptation Indicators, which are linked to the global framework for measuring progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation and were adopted at the 30th Conference of the Parties in 2025.
The use of these indicators aims to move beyond simply identifying adaptation priorities towards measuring the actions taken and the results achieved through monitoring tools that can be applied at both national and sectoral levels.
A Just Transition
The draft dedicates a section to a just and inclusive climate transition by integrating gender equality and social considerations into mitigation and adaptation policies.
Proposed measures include establishing principles for a just transition and developing a pilot matrix to assess social impacts, with a focus on decent work, social dialogue and affected livelihoods.
The draft highlights a gap between setting climate targets and having the capacity to implement them. It emphasises that preparing a national document outlining commitments and priorities does not automatically mean that a ready-to-implement programme is in place.
It explains that the document establishes national direction, targets, measures and institutional responsibilities. However, moving towards implementation requires more precise prioritisation, cost estimates, the selection of financing pathways, the allocation of responsibilities among institutions, as well as timelines and mechanisms for monitoring results.
For this reason, the draft proposes preparing a financing strategy for Jordan’s Nationally Determined Contributions as a link between climate commitments and the resources required to achieve them.
The strategy will focus on estimating investment needs, assessing the costs of proposed measures, identifying the necessary financing instruments, building partnerships and preparing projects to secure funding.
Source: Al Ghad Newspaper
