NEW YORK — On July 27th, Jordan’s Minister of Interior
Mazen Al-Faraya and Syria’s Minister of Interior Mohammad Khaled Al-Rahmoun discussed upping the
Jordan-Syria border to full capacity, citing the common interest of both nations to reap the
economic benefits of increased trade and free movement.
اضافة اعلان
The border crossing is
currently operating at limited capacity, but both sides have agreed to begin
taking steps to kick start the necessary procedures for the border crossing to
open fully.
Jordan News spoke with
security experts Robert S. Ford, former US Ambassador to Syria from 2011-2014,
and Ibrahim Al-Assil, a
senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, who discussed the
economic and security implications of the potential move for Jordan and its
relationship with the
United States.
The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, also known as
the Caesar Act, is a piece of United States legislation that places sanctions
on the Syrian government for its war crimes against the Syrian civilian
population. Its passage is seen as having crippled Damascus’ ability to trade,
the consequences of which rippled across the region, and Jordan was one nation
where the economic fallout was most strongly felt. Prior to the Syrian Civil
War, Jordan’s exports to Syria ranged from $250-$300 million annually.
If these border-opening discussions come to fruition, this could
help Jordan revive its struggling economy, but the threat of the
Caesar Act remains in place. Ambassador Ford states, “Reopening the border does not by
itself trigger sanctions against Jordanian entities as called for by the Caesar
law. However, any Jordanian entity which does business with one of the
proscribed Syrian entities could trigger American retaliation as the law
provides.”
Assil sees King Abdullah’s
recent visit to the United States and private meeting with President Biden this
past week as an indication that the Biden Administration is willing to lessen
the iron grip placed on its regional allies when it comes to their relations
with Syria, telling
Jordan News, “I think that it is clear from King
Abdullah’s visit that there was an understanding with the Americans that there
is a big economic need for Jordan to increase trade with Syria. That would
benefit people on both sides – Syrians and Jordanians.”
Assil cautioned that the border reopening could increase
Jordan’s vulnerability to security threats on two fronts: the risk of an
overflow of drug smuggling across the border given how deeply embedded drug
trafficking has become in the Syrian regime economy and (2) the increased
security threat that could surface given that Assad remains a central part of
the Iranian alliance. He added, “It comes with advantages and disadvantages.
There is an economic need for Jordan given all the challenges it's facing now.
But at the same time, it comes with geopolitical and security challenges, given
that the Iranian threats to Jordan security and the drug smuggling which is an
increasing and very dangerous dimension.”
Ambassador Ford also sees the move as part of a larger trend
among Arab states to normalize relations with the Assad government, which
directly opposes the United States’ security interests in the region. Assil
warned that this understanding should not be interpreted as the United States
wanting Assad to be fully integrated in the region, stating that easing Caesar
Act restrictions is based on a desire for the United States to help Jordan, its
closest ally in the region, address the economic challenges it is currently
facing.
Ambassador Ford advised against expecting major economic
benefits immediately, pointing out that the damage the Syrian economy has
sustained over the previous years of fighting will make increased exportation
to Jordan and economic growth an “incremental process.”
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