The Balkans is often
described as Turkey’s gateway to the EU. But for many years, Turkey, a Balkan
state itself, maintained a low geopolitical profile in the region, portraying
itself as the patron of Balkan Muslims, and little else.
اضافة اعلان
Now, however, with the EU preoccupied with fending
off an energy crisis amid the war in Ukraine, Turkey is looking to deepen its
ties to the region. In turn, Muslims and Christians in Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Serbia, and elsewhere are finally seeing Turkey for how it wants to be viewed:
as an ascendant, impartial partner.
“I’m not naive and I know that … [Turkish President
Recep Tayyip] Erdogan will always be on the side of Muslim-Bosniak interests,”
Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of Bosnia-Herzegovina’s joint presidency, said
during the Turkish leader’s visit to Sarajevo last week. “But he respects
everyone and as long as his policy is like that, I will respect him.”
Erdogan’s visit
to Sarajevo was aimed at boosting economic bonds between Turkey and the region,
with vows of pushing bilateral trade with Bosnia and Herzegovina to $1 billion
annually, up from $845 million in 2021. One of the outcomes of the trip was
passport-free travel between Turkey and Serbia, and Turkey and
Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Erdogan also expressed a commitment to becoming more
politically involved in the Balkans by helping to mediate a growing
constitutional crisis in Bosnia-Herzegovina that came as a result of unresolved
rivalries and opposing interests among the three ethnic groups living in the
country — Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats.
Bosnia-Herzegovina is still governed under the terms
of a 1995 peace treaty known as the Dayton Accords, which divided the country
into a Bosniak-Croat entity — called the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina —
and a majority-Serb entity, called Republika Srpska. However, it is the EU’s
High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, rather than local leaders, who
has the final say in the country. While the accords ended the war between the
former Yugoslav republics, critics today see this arrangement as de facto
neo-colonialism.
Even Erdogan suggested as much last week, when he
told journalists in Sarajevo that EU Representative Christian Schmidt was going
too far by pushing an amendment to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s federal election
law. Schmidt “should not interfere in the process”, Erdogan said.
More than 1,300 Turkish companies currently operate in Serbia, employing some 8,000 people. Last year, the trade balance between the two countries reached $1.73 billion and Belgrade now hopes to develop military cooperation with Ankara.
Although the EU and the US continue to be the major
foreign powers operating in the Balkans, Turkey is seizing opportunities where
it can. Erdogan has expressed interest in a trilateral summit with Serbia and
Bosnia-Herzegovina. In January, Turkey and Serbia also reportedly agreed to
mediate between Bosniak, Croat, and Serb leaders in a bid to end the stalemate
in Bosnia-Herzegovina. If talks do take place, possibly in Istanbul, Erdogan
will undoubtedly use the summit to maintain Bosnia-Herzegovina territorial
integrity.
To be sure, Turkey and Serbia have not always seen
eye to eye. Turkey was among the first countries to recognize Kosovo’s
unilateral independence from Serbia in 2008. But unlike the EU and the US,
Turkey never pressured Serbia to recognize Kosovo’s sovereignty, which left the
door open for Ankara and Belgrade to strengthen bilateral relations one day.
That day appears to have arrived. More than 1,300
Turkish companies currently operate in Serbia, employing some 8,000 people.
Last year, the trade balance between the two countries reached $1.73 billion
and Belgrade now hopes to develop military cooperation with Ankara.
For instance, the two countries are expected to hold
joint military exercises soon, while Serbia has been interested in purchasing
Turkish-made Bayraktar drones since 2020, when the sophisticated weapon proved
efficient in conflicts from Libya and Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh.
“We do not hide it … Serbia plans to buy Bayraktar
drones,” Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said during a joint press
conference with Erdogan last week.
“We know that the whole world wants to buy them, so we
are in the line, waiting.”
Turkey’s commitment to regional stability was on
display on September 2, when Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu
addressed the Open Balkan initiative, an economic and political alliance
between Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia. Among the pledges Cavusoglu
delivered was a vow to help the bloc address its energy needs this winter.
To the Serbian leadership, Turkish political and
economic activities in the country represent a “golden age” of relations
between Belgrade and Ankara.
“We will take care to maintain our friendship at the
highest level, to guard it jealously,” Vucic said.
And yet, given that Serbia has a trade deficit with
Turkey — as does every other Balkan nation except Slovenia — it is actually
Ankara that benefits most from its growing economic cooperation in the region.
Still, and while it might not last forever, Turkey
is currently presenting itself as a neutral actor, interested in doing business
with all sides.
“Our country’s balanced and fair attitude is
appreciated by all peoples in this geography,” Erdogan said before his trip
last week.
“We will continue this stance in the coming period
as well.”
Nikola Mikovic is a political analyst in Serbia. His work focuses mostly on the foreign
policies of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, with special attention on energy and
‘pipeline politics’. Syndication Bureau.
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