The
exodus of Afghans from their country following the Taliban takeover has not yet
taken place and its magnitude will only become apparent once evacuation flights
come to an end and once Afghans assess what life under the Taliban will be
like. The situation in Lebanon is becoming increasingly impossible for the
people of Lebanon who have little-to-no access to basic services and are losing
hope that a political solution can be reached to avert further disaster.
اضافة اعلان
Regrettably,
these are two refugee crises in the making and will have significant
repercussions for both the Middle East and Europe, let alone the people of
Afghanistan and Lebanon. What would make these crises markedly different than
previous ones is COVID-19. It would be unprecedented for the international
community to manage a refugee crisis during a pandemic as it will simultaneously
complicate both humanitarian relief efforts and national and global efforts
combat the pandemic.
On
the former, multilateral cooperation is still struggling and recovering from
the impact of populism and nationalism and years of neglect. While the pandemic
has underscored that national solutions alone are insufficient to address
global problems, international cooperation is far from where it was during its
golden age, largely due to dwindling funding and lack of modernization. For
multilateralism to be able to manage one or two refugee crises simultaneously
during a pandemic, and to coordinate between relief and pandemic efforts, would
be a major test and financial resources are overstretched to begin with.
On
the latter, to be effective, national and global efforts to combat the pandemic
require restrictions on the movement of individuals across borders that would
be difficult to impose during a refugee crisis. The movement of refugees with
unverifiable vaccination statuses across national borders will unnerve transit
and destination countries alike. Many countries are already panicked by spikes
in the number of their cases, the emergence of new strains of the virus and the
overall uncertainty regarding the virus’ future trajectory. The movement of
refugees across national borders during a pandemic will also likely cause a
populist backlash further stoking anti-refugee sentiment. One can only imagine
the reaction: Not only are refugees coming to steal jobs and change our
demographics and norms but they are also carrying disease and taking up
hospital beds!
The
media are often rightly accused of being both sensationalist and overstating,
and in turn, compounding existing problems. In fact, part of the multilateral
malaise is the growing perception, promulgated by the media, that international
cooperation is dysfunctional. There is still hope for Afghanistan and Lebanon.
The Taliban may have learned the lessons of their previous rule and will be
more inclusive going forward. Likewise, a political solution in Lebanon is not
as elusive as one would imagine, if only Lebanese politicians place their
country’s national interests ahead of their own. In both cases, we may be clutching
at straws. Host or transit countries of these potential outflow of refugees — including,
but not limited to, Jordan, Syria, Turkey, and Pakistan — need to consider the
impact of such a disaster on their countries. They should also start a
conversation with European countries like Greece as well as the European Union
and international organizations to assess what such a response would look like.
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Opinion and Analysis
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