This is an election year in Pakistan, and while
it's unclear whether the polls will be held as planned, Pakistanis are already
voting with their feet.
اضافة اعلان
This month’s tragic drowning of more than 200 Pakistani migrants in a boat that capsized off the coast of Greece reflects the
growing and often deadly exodus from the country.
Frontex, the EU’s border and
coast guard agency, reports that the number of illegal EU border-crossing
attempts by Pakistani nationals has more than doubled to 4,684 during the first
four months of this year, compared to the same period in 2022.
Why are so many Pakistanis choosing to make this
perilous journey? The reasons are many, but primarily economic. The chief
driver of Pakistani emigration, according to a 2020 survey by the International
Organization for Migration, is the absence of good jobs at home.
Given the poor labor environment, Pakistani
families save the 2.2 million rupees (about $7,700) needed
to traffic a young, able-bodied male to Europe so he can earn for the
household. As stubborn double-digit inflation — it currently hovers at nearly 40 percent — eats into the purchasing power of Pakistani households,
foreign currency earnings have even greater value.
But irregular migration to the EU will bring difficulties for both new arrivals and their receiving countries. Yet this trend will likely continue for as long as Pakistan’s internal unrest continues to simmer.
Pakistani irregular migration into Europe by sea
is not a new phenomenon. An initial surge began in late 2010 as terror attacks
rose in the country and the economy floundered. Years later, attempts to reach
Europe and even Australia rose once again. This wave of migrants included Shias
fleeing surging sectarian violence.
The Australian government stuck to its
zero-tolerance policy toward irregular migration, posting ads in Pakistani
newspapers with an uninviting message in large red text: "No Way. You Will Not Make Australia Home."
In contrast, Pakistan’s leaders have largely responded to this dangerous exodus
with indifference or derision. In 2012, when asked by CNN why so many
Pakistanis wanted to leave their country, then-Prime Minister Yusuf
Raza Gilani replied: “And why don’t they leave then? Who is stopping them?”
Just days before the most recent tragedy,
Pakistan’s defense minister, Khawaja Muhammad
Asif, ridiculed Pakistani expatriates as people who “abandon” their country and only return home
to bury their elders and sell their inherited property.
Pakistan has long harbored known human
trafficking networks, including in the central cities of Gujrat and Gujranwala.
These networks thrive in part due to an enabling environment created by the
Pakistani government, which either pays a blind eye or colludes with them.
A former official with Pakistan’s top law
enforcement agency recently alleged that some “black sheep” within the
organization’s ranks protect human trafficking networks. The quick arrests by Pakistani law
enforcement of traffickers tied to the Greek tragedy likely reflect that these
individuals were already known to the government.
Since the 1970s, the Pakistani government has
actively promoted legal labor emigration, including to the Gulf region. As
prominent Pakistani economist Nadeem ul Haque has said, for the past two to
three decades, Pakistan’s largest export has been its people.
Pakistan suffers from a low export base. Its rent-seeking
industrial elite profit from protectionist policies at home and have little incentive to compete in the global market.
As a result of its consumption-led growth strategies, Pakistan faces recurring balance of payments crises.
Remittances sent home by Pakistan’s economic
migrants — including those who survive the dangerous sea route — provide vital
foreign exchange and, in effect, subsidize the consumption of the Pakistani
elite.
The growing flight of Pakistanis abroad now
extends beyond poor, irregular migrants. With an economy stuck in stagflation and a paucity of good jobs, more and more Pakistanis of all economic backgrounds are leaving
the country.
Like many developing countries, Pakistan has
suffered from a brain drain for decades. But this trend is now intensifying.
Skilled economic migrants make up a growing percentage of Pakistanis
leaving the country, rising from 1.2 percent in 2011 to 6.5 percent today.
Alongside the desperately poor, those of means or with advanced degrees are
choosing to leave the country in greater numbers.
Pakistani irregular migration into Europe by sea is not a new phenomenon. An initial surge began in late 2010 as terror attacks rose in the country and the economy floundered.
According to a 2022 survey, a majority of Pakistani
males between the ages of 14 and 34 want to leave the country. What is
particularly striking is that these sentiments are highest among the most
educated and the upper-middle class. This signals a broader disenchantment with
the status quo as Pakistan’s “polycrisis” – the confluence
of economic, political, and security challenges stemming from the
ouster of Prime Minister Imran Khan last year – continues.
Countries like Canada will benefit from the
influx of skilled labor and migrants with capital. These immigrants will build
happy and productive lives in a functional, democratic, and meritocratic
society with a clear path for upward mobility.
But irregular migration to the EU will bring difficulties for both new arrivals
and their receiving countries. Yet this trend will likely continue for as long
as Pakistan’s internal unrest continues to simmer.
The tumult in Pakistan is having ramifications
far beyond the country’s shores. Given Pakistan’s fast-growing
population — it is forecast to grow from 220 million
today to 336 million by 2050 — the developed world cannot afford to ignore
Pakistan’s economic and political plight.
Stability in Pakistan is key to the interests of
its neighbors and Europe. To ensure it, the country must find a path toward
sustainable, equitable economic growth, and a political environment in which
fundamental rights are protected.
Arif Rafiq is
president of Vizier Consulting, LLC,
a political risk advisory company focused on the Middle East and South Asia,
and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute. Twitter: @arifcrafiq
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