For nearly a year, Lebanon’s parliament has repeatedly tried, and
failed, to elect a successor to former President Michel Aoun, who stepped down
at the end of October 2022. Lebanon’s political vacuum isn’t the
cause of the country’s myriad problems, but the uncertainty has done little to ameliorate a crippling
financial crisis compounded by the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
and the 2020 Beirut port explosion.
اضافة اعلان
Why has parliament been so inept during Lebanon’s time of need,
and can it turn things around?Immediately after parliamentary elections in May 2022, many
observers hoped that the arrival of new, independent members would bring
positive changes to the institution. Empowered by
emerging political factions galvanized by the October 17 protest movement, the new MPs
capitalized on
anti-establishment sentiment and sought to craft a different political discourse
that
appealed to many voters.
The presidential power void has stalled these reforms.
Inability to move Lebanon forward
Parliament’s inability to move Lebanon forward has become almost
insufferable. In June, the chamber
failed for the 12th time to agree on a president, as the two
leading contenders, Jihad Azour, a former finance minister, and Suleiman
Frangieh, the incumbent leader of the Marada Movement, split the vote. The
latest stalemate resulted from a broken quorum and the lack of consensus over
voting procedure.
Immediately after parliamentary elections in May 2022, many observers hoped that the arrival of new, independent members would bring positive changes to the institution. Empowered by emerging political factions galvanized by the October 17 protest movement, the new MPs capitalized on anti-establishment sentiment and sought to craft a different political discourse that appealed to many voters.
Newly elected “opposition” MPs might have been expected to rally
around Azour, a respected economist and director of the IMF's Middle East
and Central Asia Department. After all, it’s the IMF that claims to have the
blueprint for fixing Lebanon’s economic woes. The fund has called on parliament
and the caretaker government to enact structural reforms to the country’s central
bank and to improve the transparency of state-owned enterprises.
But in the end, Azour, who temporarily
“relinquished” his responsibilities at the IMF to mitigate any conflict of interest, received only 59
votes, 27 votes less than the two-thirds majority of 86 deputies required
to force a second round.
His candidacy is also contentious
Meanwhile, Azour’s opponent, Frangieh, has been part of Lebanon’s
political landscape for decades. Yet his candidacy is also contentious (he
received 51 votes in June). Frangieh’s nomination is heavily backed by the Shia
blocs of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement in parliament. He’s also known for his
strong ties to the Syrian regime. To many, Frangieh’s nomination is a painful
reminder of the Syrian occupation of Lebanon and its institutions, which ended
only in
2005 after the withdrawal of the last Syrian troops from the country.
Adding to the intrigue is Frangieh’s son, MP Tony Frangieh, who
won a seat in the previous parliamentary elections. While family political
dynasties are common in Lebanon, one can easily envision the conflicting
interests that may arise in the executive-legislature relationship if Suleiman
Frangieh were to succeed in his presidential bid. Parliament’s role is to keep
the government in check while scrutinizing its actions, but in the convoluted
confessional politics of Lebanon, where blood can be prioritized over public
interest, a father-son duo portends trouble.
Deepening political polarization
To be sure, a new president, even one with a majority consensus,
won’t be able to solve all of Lebanon’s problems. Aoun left office amid
deepening political polarization and waning public support, challenges that
remain today.
But in countries like Lebanon – which
Freedom House describes as “partly free,” and where corruption is an
ever-present challenge – it’s the legislature that’s best positioned to serve the
interests of the public. With weak rule of law and poor standards for public
accountability, Lebanon’s legislators have long been among the only leaders
doing the people’s work.
Parliament’s inability to move Lebanon forward has become almost insufferable. In June, the chamber failed for the 12th time to agree on a president, as the two leading contenders, Jihad Azour, a former finance minister, and Suleiman Frangieh, the incumbent leader of the Marada Movement, split the vote. The latest stalemate resulted from a broken quorum and the lack of consensus over voting procedure.
The prolonged presidential vacuum is taking attention away from
this duty. Today, poverty is rising and most Lebanese are
unable to meet their basic needs. Public services are scarce and
inflation continues to rise. Thus, rather than squabble over who will lead, parliament should
focus on reforming the banking sector, securing the financial position of the
National Social Security Fund, and ending the current devaluation of the
currency.
While
international humanitarian aid is helping to mitigate the country’s financial collapse,
this is not a long-term solution. Parliament must focus on more concrete
policies concerning Lebanon’s political economy against the background of its
caretaker administration.
Lebanon's presidential impasse appears likely to continue – for
how long is anyone’s guess – but the people’s pain shouldn’t. While the country
requires a new president, the more urgent need is a parliament capable of
filling the leadership vacuum.
Meray Maddah is a doctoral candidate at the University of
Konstanz, in Germany, a researcher in the “National Legislators in
International Politics” working group, and a non-resident Global Fellow at
Brown University's Center for Human Rights and Humanitarian Studies.
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