Jordan is yet to issue a formal statement on the US and Saudi
separate announcements that President Joe Biden will be attending a regional
summit in Jeddah on July 16 that will bring together the leaders of the five
GCC countries in addition to King Abdullah, the Egyptian president and the
Iraqi premier. Biden will be arriving in Saudi Arabia, for the first time since
he assumed office, following a visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories,
according to the White House.
اضافة اعلان
There were also unconfirmed reports that Biden might
be making a short stopover in Amman on his way to Saudi Arabia.
It is unusual for the Royal Court and the Foreign
Ministry not to comment on news involving Jordan and ties with the US,
specifically.
Jordan’s silence could be attributed to the shortage
of information on the agenda of Biden’s visit, especially to the West Bank. The
White House said on June 14 that “the president will begin his travel in
Israel, where he will meet with Israeli leaders to discuss Israel’s security,
prosperity, and its increasing integration into the greater region. The
president will also visit the West Bank to consult with the Palestinian
Authority and to reiterate his strong support for a two-state solution, with
equal measures of security, freedom, and opportunity for the Palestinian
people.”
The two-state solution, which King Abdullah
advocates strongly, was mentioned only in relation to the Palestinians, but was
not among the issues that the White House spokesperson said will top the US
president’s discussions with the Israeli leaders.
Also among the controversial issues, at least for
Jordan, is the reference to “Israel’s integration into the greater region”,
which Amman views with anxiety. Jordan has not commented publicly on news that
a bipartisan bill was introduced in Congress on June 9, giving the Pentagon 180
days to present a plan to integrate the air defense capabilities of Israel and
a number of Arab countries, including Jordan, to counter ballistic missile
threats from Iran and its proxies. A vast majority of Jordanians can be
expected to reject such open military cooperation with Israel.
Various Israeli and US media reports speculated in
the past week that Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia will pave the way for Riyadh
to join the Abraham Accords. There was no hint of that in the Saudi media.
The White House release on the Saudi visit said that
“while in Saudi Arabia, the president will discuss a range of bilateral,
regional, and global issues. These include support to the UN-mediated truce in
Yemen, which has led to the most peaceful period there since war began seven
years ago. He will also discuss means for expanding regional economic and
security cooperation, including new and promising infrastructure and climate
initiatives, as well as deterring threats from Iran, advancing human rights,
and ensuring global energy and food security. The president looks forward to
outlining his affirmative vision for US engagement in the region over the
coming months and years.”
Amman is concerned that Biden’s visit will focus
more on normalizing ties with Riyadh, following months of tensions especially
over oil production limits in light of the spike in global energy prices as a
result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, than on finding ways to re-launch
stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. On his two visits to the White House,
last year and last May, King Abdullah tried to get Biden to take actual steps
toward that goal, in addition to renewing America’s commitment to the two-state
solution.
But Amman could get little more than verbal
commitment. In fact, this writer was told by a source close to President
Mahmoud Abbas that when US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern
Affairs Barbara Leaf visited Ramallah last week, she told the Palestinian
leader not to raise “side issues” with Biden such as the administration’s
promise to re-open the US consulate in East Jerusalem.
The fact is that
Jordan sees little benefit from being forced to join a new military alliance
with Israel that brings the GCC countries, along with Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and
possibly Turkey, into what has been dubbed as a Middle Eastern NATO that will
further normalize ties with Israel without extracting any concessions on the
Palestinian issue.
Jordan will also feel uneasy about the open
hostility to Iran, which is expected to feature as a theme at the Jeddah
summit. King Abdullah has tried to keep all options open when dealing with
Tehran’s controversial role in the region. The Iranian embassy remains fully
functional in Amman while there is no Jordanian ambassador in Tehran.
While not criticizing the Abraham Accords directly,
Jordan believes that the normalization deals involving the UAE and Bahrain will
not bring regional peace. In an interview while in the US last May, King
Abdullah said that “no matter what relations Arab countries have with Israel,
if we don’t solve the Palestinian issue, it is really two steps forward and two
steps back.”
But the King’s carefully worded statements on the
issue have not affected his ties with the leaders of the UAE and Bahrain, with
whom he has strong personal relations. In fact, he hopes that both countries
will use their leverage to influence Israel’s position on peace talks with the
Palestinians.
But Jordanians in general believe that at some phase
in the future, Riyadh will follow in the footsteps of UAE and Bahrain in
normalizing ties with Israel. This, in spite of the repeated Saudi position
that it remains committed to the Arab Peace Initiative.
What Jordan fears is that a collapse of the
two-state solution, deteriorating ties with Israel over Al-Aqsa and closer
Israel-Gulf strategic ties will not only come at the expense of the
Palestinians, it will eventually put Jordan before existential challenges.
This is perhaps why Jordan has not commented on
Biden’s visit and the Jeddah summit until now. It is taking a wait-and-see
position, perhaps hoping that the visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin
Salman to Amman this week will shed more light on what can be expected from the
summit and where Riyadh stands on the issue of normalization with Israel.
The
writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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