Journalists know
that authors with a book to sell often provide the best quotes. That, in part,
explains the reappearance of France’s former
President Nicolas Sarkozy in
the news recently, as an
interview he gave to promote his
memoirs sparked a storm for appearing to support Russia.
اضافة اعلان
The one-term
president said that
Russia was Europe’s neighbor and that “we need them and
they need us.” Of the Ukraine invasion, he said that Europe needed a clearer
strategy, but that Ukraine should ultimately remain neutral and not be admitted
to
NATO or the
European Union.
Contentious
remarks
His most
contentious remarks were about Crimea,
Ukrainian territory annexed by Russia in
2014. Returning that territory – as some fighting the
Ukraine war have
suggested ought to be a goal – was illusory, Sarkozy said.
A general
consensus on how the invasion of Ukraine might end
Sarkozy is only
one of a handful of voices around the
Western world breaking with the general
consensus on how the invasion of Ukraine might end. These voices have grown
louder as the progress of the
Ukrainian counteroffensive has quieted. The
reason is that the West's vision of how this war might end has never looked so
fragile. As the winter of the second year of war fast approaches, and it begins
to look like
Ukraine policy will be a fixture in European and
American elections next year, fatigue, even resentment, is setting in. The unusual
proposals put forward by voices like Sarkozy are an expression of this
uncertainty, a search not so much for a way forward, as for a way out.
He may have been a lone voice on the debate stage, and he is in a minority across mainstream Republican politicians, but his views do have traction with the Trump base, to whom he is obviously appealing. The same applies to Sarkozy, who is not a decision-maker, although he does wield considerable influence on his wing of French politics.
Days before the
Sarkozy interview, Stian Jenssen, the director of the private office of the
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, suggested that Ukraine might give up land to Russia in
exchange for joining
NATO.
Across the
Atlantic, the little-known Republican contender
Vivek Ramaswamy took a hard line on Ukraine in the first
television debate, saying he would end financial assistance to the country, and
has echoed Sarkozy in saying he would block Ukraine’s entry into NATO and
trade Ukrainian land for a Russian peace.
He may have been a
lone voice on the debate stage, and he is in a minority across mainstream
Republican politicians, but his views do have traction with the Trump base, to
whom he is obviously appealing. The same applies to Sarkozy, who is not a
decision-maker, although he does wield considerable influence on his wing of
French politics.
Absence of policy
Yet part of why
Sarkozy's comments have had such an airing is because they are echoing in the
absence of policy.
Despite some
overenthusiastic reports in the media about the
speed of Ukraine's advance, progress has been plodding. The
counteroffensive is about to enter its fourth month, with no major shift in the
battle lines.
The maximalist
position of retaking the occupied territories in the east of the country and
even Crimea is, on current progress, years away; it isn't even obvious if
Western leaders have the appetite for such a drawn-out conflict, much less
their populations.
Minimalist
position is obscure
Yet the minimalist
position is obscure, and that is a major reason why little diplomatic progress
has been made. What would the smallest imaginable
Ukrainian victory look like?
Giving up the eastern territories? Freezing the conflict into the future?
Ukraine's president has repeatedly ruled out both these scenarios.
Over the past
year, Western leaders have batted away these details, hoping that battlefield
victories would change the
political calculus. But with no decisive blow yet
dealt to Russia, Western capitals are beginning to wonder what might be next.
The words “frozen conflict” loom above all, alongside the question of how to
explain them to an electorate.
Next year, there
will be three major elections for those involved in the Ukraine war.
In June, there
will be
European elections, and if the Ukraine conflict is still frozen or
grinding slowly, and the continent’s cost of living crisis continues, the
architects of the current policy can expect a hammering.
Surprisingly, Russia’s presidential election in March may be the one where Ukraine plays the least role. As long as there is no breakthrough for Kyiv before then, or a need for a mass mobilization of Russian men, the election can possibly downplay the reality of the war, and reiterate the talking points of Moscow fighting its enemies.
The US election
later that year is more ambiguous, with foreign policy rarely top of the agenda
for voters. But already candidates for the Republican nomination are wrapping
new views on Ukraine into a broader non-intervention,
America-first outlook.
Whoever opposes Joe Biden for the presidency, putting American interests first
will be a crucial part of the conversation, and the astronomical sums offered to
Ukraine an easy line of attack.
Ukraine may play
the least role
Surprisingly,
Russia’s presidential election in March may be the one where Ukraine plays the
least role. As long as there is no breakthrough for Kyiv before then, or a need
for a mass mobilization of Russian men, the election can possibly downplay the
reality of the war, and reiterate the talking points of
Moscow fighting its enemies.
But Russian
elections also mean that, if the war can’t be resolved by force before then, it
won’t be resolved by negotiations until afterwards – because it won’t be in
Putin’s interests to have a negotiated deal on the table in March. Better to be
“in talks,” and
remove the issue of Ukraine from the agenda. In other words, if
there is no major change in the war in the next few weeks, it will almost
certainly grind on into next spring.
That realization
is behind the resurgence of the “realist” position, of which
Sarkozy's ideas
are only part.
For months,
Western leaders have been hoping to end this war in Ukraine. As that becomes
less likely, so a shift is gradually taking place: the realization that if the
Ukraine invasion can't be solved on the Ukrainian battlefield, it will have to
be solved on the Western political stage.
Faisal Al Yafai is currently writing a book on the Middle East and is a frequent commentator on international TV news networks. He has worked for news outlets such as The Guardian and the BBC, and reported on the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa. Twitter: @FaisalAlYafai
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